Game Analysis
Lean – Florida International (+7) 25 Temple 30
Thursday, December 21 – 5 pm Pacific
Temple is certainly a better team since Frank Nutile took over at quarterback but the line has more than adjusted to that improvement and I don’t see any significant value in this game either way. Temple’s strength is a defense that is mediocre by national standards, allowing 5.6 yards per play and 27.7 points per game to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl and 27.9 points against an average defensive team. Florida International put up good offensive numbers (403 yards at 6.0 yppl) but that number was skewed by the 9.2 yppl in their 63-45 final game win over U Mass and overall the Panthers faced a collection of defensive units that would combine to allow 6.3 yppl to an average offensive team – so FIU is below average offensively even with that big final game boosting their numbers. My model projects a sub-par 339 yards at 5.2 yppl for FIU in this game
Temple’s offense was horrible in the first half of the season with Logan Marchi behind center but the Owls got a boost when Nutile took over, as he rates at 0.8 yards per pass play better than Marchi. Nutile is still 0.2 yards per pass play below average if you take out his garbage time stats against UCF’s backups, which includes a 74 yard touchdown pass, and the Owls’ rushing attack is horrible (4.45 yprp against teams that would allow 5.25 yprp), so that unit probably won’t fully exploit a bad FIU defense that has surrendered 6.2 yppl to teams that would combine to average only 5.4 yppl against an average defensive team. However, my math model projects a pretty good 420 yards at 6.1 yppl for the Owls.
Overall the math favors Temple by just 5 ½ points and Florida International coach Butch Davis is 6-1 ATS in bowl games, so he may have an edge in knowing how to prepare his team for a bowl game over Temple’s year head coach Geoff Collins. I don’t have much here but I’d lean slightly with Florida International at +7 points or more playing close to home in St. Petersburg.
Rush
-
Run Plays
33.3
37.8
-
Run Yards
137.3
182.1
-
YPRP
4.4
5.2
Pass
-
Pass Comp
20.3
17.0
-
Pass Att
35.1
29.2
-
Comp %
57.7%
58.3%
-
Pass Yards
247.2
209.7
-
Sacks
1.6
2.6
-
Sack Yards
11.0
15.8
-
Sack %
4.3%
8.1%
-
Pass Plays
36.7
31.8
-
Net Pass Yards
236.2
193.9
-
YPPP
6.4
6.1
Total
-
Total Plays
70.0
69.6
-
Total Yards
384.4
391.8
-
YPPL
5.5
5.6
TO
-
Int
1.3
0.7
-
Int %
3.6%
2.3%
-
Fumbles
0.5
0.6
-
Turnovers
1.8
1.3
Rush
-
Run Plays
35.2
34.3
-
Run Yards
166.6
180.4
-
YPRP
5.1
5.6
Pass
-
Pass Comp
19.5
21.3
-
Pass Att
30.1
32.4
-
Comp %
64.8%
65.5%
-
Pass Yards
236.3
243.1
-
Sacks
1.8
1.8
-
Sack Yards
14.3
10.2
-
Sack %
5.7%
5.1%
-
Pass Plays
31.9
34.2
-
Net Pass Yards
222.1
232.9
-
YPPP
7.0
6.8
Total
-
Total Plays
67.1
68.4
-
Total Yards
402.9
423.5
-
YPPL
6.0
6.2
TO
-
Int
0.7
0.6
-
Int %
2.2%
1.8%
-
Fumbles
0.8
0.8
-
Turnovers
1.5
1.4
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/02/17 @ Notre Dame |
16-49 |
+18.0
L
|
34/42 |
105/429 |
3.1/10.2 |
1/0 |
19/17 |
35/30 |
225/177 |
0/1 |
3/2 |
5.9/5.5 |
330/606 |
4.6/8.2 |
09/09/17 Villanova |
16-13 |
0.0
W
|
25/27 |
84/58 |
3.4/2.1 |
0/1 |
20/27 |
34/41 |
271/348 |
0/0 |
1/3 |
7.7/7.9 |
355/406 |
5.9/5.7 |
09/15/17 Massachusetts |
29-21 |
-14.5
L
|
32/23 |
127/104 |
4.0/4.5 |
0/1 |
24/23 |
39/37 |
260/340 |
0/0 |
2/8 |
6.3/7.6 |
387/444 |
5.3/6.5 |
09/21/17 @ South Florida |
7-43 |
+18.0
L
|
28/61 |
42/323 |
1.5/5.3 |
2/2 |
7/8 |
25/20 |
43/90 |
4/0 |
5/1 |
1.4/4.3 |
85/413 |
1.5/5.0 |
09/30/17 Houston |
13-20 |
+13.0
W
|
36/31 |
170/162 |
4.7/5.2 |
0/0 |
20/25 |
41/36 |
168/225 |
3/1 |
1/0 |
4.0/6.3 |
338/387 |
4.3/5.8 |
10/07/17 @ East Carolina |
34-10 |
-3.0
W
|
46/18 |
180/61 |
3.9/3.4 |
0/0 |
21/20 |
33/37 |
344/227 |
1/1 |
0/4 |
10.4/5.5 |
524/288 |
6.6/4.9 |
10/14/17 Connecticut |
24-28 |
-10.0
L
|
27/34 |
132/161 |
4.9/4.7 |
1/1 |
33/18 |
54/28 |
341/87 |
1/1 |
2/2 |
6.1/2.9 |
473/248 |
5.7/3.9 |
10/21/17 @ Army |
28-31 |
+7.5
W
|
35/49 |
242/253 |
6.9/5.2 |
0/0 |
21/8 |
31/18 |
272/136 |
0/1 |
2/1 |
8.2/7.2 |
514/389 |
7.6/5.7 |
11/02/17 Navy |
34-26 |
+7.5
W
|
28/47 |
104/162 |
3.7/3.4 |
0/0 |
22/13 |
30/19 |
289/200 |
1/1 |
0/5 |
9.6/8.3 |
393/362 |
6.8/5.1 |
11/10/17 @ Cincinnati |
35-24 |
-3.0
W
|
41/33 |
212/185 |
5.2/5.6 |
1/1 |
19/21 |
30/37 |
220/216 |
1/0 |
1/1 |
7.1/5.7 |
432/401 |
6.0/5.6 |
11/18/17 UCF |
19-45 |
+13.0
L
|
34/37 |
186/150 |
5.5/4.1 |
1/0 |
17/18 |
41/28 |
145/238 |
4/0 |
1/2 |
3.5/7.9 |
331/388 |
4.4/5.8 |
11/25/17 @ Tulsa |
43-22 |
-3.5
W
|
34/52 |
195/326 |
5.7/6.3 |
0/1 |
20/6 |
28/19 |
256/43 |
0/2 |
1/2 |
8.8/2.0 |
451/369 |
7.2/5.1 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
08/31/17 @ UCF |
17-61 |
+17.0
L
|
25/44 |
102/157 |
4.1/3.6 |
3/1 |
18/26 |
31/33 |
196/439 |
1/1 |
1/0 |
6.1/13.3 |
298/596 |
5.2/7.7 |
09/08/17 Alcorn State |
17-10 |
0.0
W
|
38/23 |
168/94 |
4.4/4.1 |
1/0 |
21/22 |
33/34 |
295/183 |
0/0 |
2/1 |
8.4/5.2 |
463/277 |
6.3/4.8 |
09/23/17 @ Rice |
13-7 |
+2.0
W
|
27/39 |
147/114 |
5.4/2.9 |
0/0 |
17/16 |
28/27 |
136/134 |
1/1 |
5/2 |
4.1/4.6 |
283/248 |
4.7/3.6 |
09/30/17 Charlotte |
30-29 |
-10.0
L
|
40/48 |
236/360 |
5.9/7.5 |
0/0 |
15/16 |
27/28 |
241/144 |
1/0 |
0/1 |
8.9/5.0 |
477/504 |
7.1/6.5 |
10/07/17 @ Middle Tenn St |
17-37 |
+9.5
L
|
32/34 |
115/176 |
3.6/5.2 |
1/0 |
22/25 |
34/31 |
197/247 |
1/0 |
4/0 |
5.2/8.0 |
312/423 |
4.5/6.5 |
10/14/17 Tulane |
23-10 |
+13.0
W
|
42/36 |
224/236 |
5.3/6.6 |
0/1 |
17/5 |
31/16 |
220/20 |
2/1 |
0/3 |
7.1/1.1 |
444/256 |
6.1/4.7 |
10/28/17 @ Marshall |
41-30 |
+16.5
W
|
47/28 |
231/173 |
4.9/6.2 |
0/1 |
14/33 |
18/52 |
170/363 |
0/2 |
1/0 |
8.9/7.0 |
401/536 |
6.1/6.7 |
11/04/17 UTSA |
14-7 |
+7.0
W
|
36/36 |
118/169 |
3.3/4.7 |
2/2 |
18/13 |
25/21 |
215/92 |
1/0 |
0/4 |
8.6/3.7 |
333/261 |
5.5/4.3 |
11/11/17 Old Dominion |
30-37 |
-9.5
L
|
32/33 |
177/217 |
5.5/6.6 |
2/0 |
35/17 |
50/24 |
310/224 |
0/0 |
2/3 |
6.0/8.3 |
487/441 |
5.8/7.4 |
11/18/17 @ Florida Atl. |
24-52 |
+14.5
L
|
26/45 |
128/339 |
4.9/7.5 |
0/0 |
20/18 |
33/25 |
192/233 |
0/1 |
4/1 |
5.2/9.0 |
320/572 |
5.1/8.1 |
11/24/17 Western Kentucky |
41-17 |
+3.0
W
|
33/22 |
124/89 |
3.8/4.0 |
0/3 |
17/30 |
26/49 |
227/331 |
0/0 |
0/5 |
8.7/6.1 |
351/420 |
5.9/5.5 |
12/02/17 Massachusetts |
63-45 |
+1.5
W
|
44/23 |
400/163 |
9.1/7.1 |
1/2 |
20/34 |
25/49 |
266/385 |
1/1 |
3/1 |
9.5/7.7 |
666/548 |
9.3/7.5 |