Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – WEST VIRGINIA (-6 )  41  T.c.u.  30

West Virginia answered their critics with a 48-17 win at Texas Tech last week. Scoring 48 points on Tech proved very little but holding the ‘Air Raid’ attack to just 5.0 yards per play and 17 points is a major accomplishment and is certainly noteworthy. West Virginia’s defense has yielded only 19.4 points per game and 5.2 yards per play despite facing a schedule of teams that would average 32 points and 6.1 yppl against an average defensive team. That unit is just 0.1 yppl worse than a good TCU offense that is 1.0 yppl better than average against FBS competition (6.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team).

The mismatch in this game is when West Virginia has the ball, as the Mountaineers have averaged 538 yards per game and rate at 1.2 yppl better than average (6.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl) while TCU’s defense is just 0.2 yppl better than average (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl), which excludes their horrible defensive performance in a 59-41 week 1 win over FCS team South Dakota State. If you included that game then TCU’s defense is worse than average.

The line indicates that the odds makers consider West Virginia to be the better team but the Mounties should be favored by even more points. I’ll consider West Virginia a Strong Opinion at -6 ½ points or less.