Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – SMU (+21)  27   Tcu  43

TCU is 0-3 ATS so far this season and I still think the Horned Frogs are a bit overrated. The offense is playing as well as expected (7.0 yards per play against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team) but the TCU defense is questionable. I’ll give that unit a pass for the 7.4 yards per play and 41 points they allowed to South Dakota State in their opener, and the Frogs’ D has played better the last two weeks against Arkansas (5.7 yppl) and Iowa State (4.3 yppl) but they’re still not as good as expected on that side of the ball even if you take out the horrible numbers from week 1.

SMU, meanwhile, is capable of doing some damage offensively with a good ground attack led by RB Braeden West (332 yards at 6.4 ypr). However, quarterback Ben Hicks, who stepped in when star Matt Davis was lost to a season ending injury in week 1, has to take better care of the ball (5 interceptions). Overall SMU is below average offensively but the Mustangs have played really well defensively so far this season, yielding just 4.8 yards per play in their 3 games and limiting Baylor’s attack to just 5.2 yppl in week 2 is certainly impressive.

TCU will probably score a good number of points because of the large number of possessions each team will have in this game but SMU is an underrated team (3-0 ATS so far) and my ratings only favor the Horned Frogs by 16 points. I’ll consider SMU a Strong Opinion at +21 points or more.

Note: This line has dropped since I released it to my subscribers but I still obviously lean with SMU.