Game Analysis

Michigan (-7.5)  34   Texas Christian  26

TCU has had a magical season under first year head coach Sonny Dykes and made the playoffs even after losing to Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship game. The Horned Frogs have an elite offense that averaged 7.0 yards per play against a schedule of teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team. That unit has a slight edge over a Michigan defense that’s been 1.2 yppl better than average this season, yielding 4.4 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defense. I project 374 yards at 6.1 yppl in the perfect dome conditions for the Horned Frogs.

Michigan’s offense has been 1.4 yppl better than average with J.J. McCarthy behind center and they’ve been even better with explosive running back Donovan Edwards (872 yards at 7.5 ypr) taking over as the main ball-carrier since Blake Corum (1463 yards at 5.9 ypr) got hurt. Edwards has 401 yards on 47 runs the last two games against Ohio State and Purdue in place of Corum.

TCU’s defense has been 0.5 yppl better than average for the season but they’ve been considerably better with free safety Bud Clark on the field. Clark missed the first few games in which the Horned Frogs gave up a lot of passing yards, then he played off the bench for 4 games before being inserted into the starting lineup after the defense gave up too many big pass plays to Kansas State. In those 6 games with Clark as the last line of defense the Horned Frogs have yielded just 5.1 yards per pass play to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.7 yppp against an average defensive team. TCU allowed 14.1 yards per completion in their first 7 games but yielded just 10.9 ypc in the 6 games that Clark started. TCU’s defense is significantly better now than it was over their first half of the season. I project 438 yards at 6.8 yppl for Michigan in this game.

Overall, the math favors Michigan by just 6.5 points (with 59.9 total points) but the Wolverines apply to a 69-29-2 ATS bowl statistical matchup indicator that is based on their ability to run the ball. I think 7.5 is perfect line and I recommend passing this game.