Game Analysis

UCF (-9)  31   Stanford  24

Stanford quarterback K.J. Costello returns to action this week after sitting out the USC game with a concussion. The bigger issue for the Cardinal in that game was a defense that gave up 45 points and 8.3 yards per play to USC and their freshman quarterback making his first career start. USC’s offense is underrated but that is still a reason for concern. UCF, however, doesn’t have accurate quarterbacks to pick apart the Cardinal (Wimbush has a career 50.6% completion rate on 405 passes and Gabriel is right at 50%). UCF’s pass attack is putting up big numbers because of big plays (averaging 19.9 yards per completion), but that positive ypc variance isn’t likely to continue and Stanford can keep the Knights in check if their safeties can limit the big plays. Stanford has never allowed more than 12.2 ypc in a season under coach Shaw so they’re likely to clean up the mistakes they made last week (and, they only allowed 3.2 yards per pass play to Northwestern is week 1).

UCF’s defense has been really good so far, as holding Florida Atlantic to just 3.7 yards per play is impressive even with FAU’s attack down this season. But, I think Costello is good enough to lead his team to enough points to cover the inflated number and the Cardinal are 9-2 ATS as a dog of more than 11 points under Shaw.