Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **SAN JOSE STATE (-2.5 -115)  33   Stanford  22

San Jose State quarterback Walker Eget had a disastrous game in heavy rain last week against UNLV, completing just 4 of 22 passes in a 16-27 loss. However, Eget is still averaging 8.1 yards per pass play the last 7 games since he started taking snaps from early season starter Emmett Brown and his +1.5 yards per pass play rating is a significant improvement over Brown, who was 0.2 yppp worse than average after adjusting for pass defenses faced. Eget is still the starter, despite last week’s horrible performance, and he doesn’t have to worry about inclement weather this week, as it’s meant to be nice in San Jose on Friday afternoon (6 mph winds and no rain).

Stanford is worse than average defending the pass (7.8 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average of 7.0 yppp against an average defense) and Eget has abused the worse than average pass defenses he’s faced (Nevada, Colorado State, Wyoming, and Oregon State) to the tune of 9.5 yards per pass play. The Spartans have a poor rushing attack but they don’t run it much and they should surpass their 414 yards at 6.6 yards per play season averages with Eget bouncing back against a Stanford defense with a porous pass defense.

Stanford’s offense is unlikely to keep up, as the Cardinal average just 20.2 points per game and are 0.7 yppl worse than average and will be facing a better than average San Jose State defense (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defense).

Last week’s poor performance by Eget in heavy rain has supplied us with value on the Spartans this week against a Stanford team that is coming off a deflating loss to their rival Cal (lead by 11 in the 4th-quarter) and doesn’t have any incentive in this game with their 3-7 record. This game certainly matter a lot more to a 6-5 San Jose State team that is not guaranteed a bowl game with just 6 wins and would surely love to knock off a local Power-4 school.

The Spartans are significantly better on offense and on defense and they’re at home. San Jose State is a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 -115 or better and 1-Star to -4.