Game Analysis

CALIFORNIA (+3)  22   Stanford  21

Cal has the 6th best defense in the nation based on compensated yards per play, allowing just 4.7 yards per play despite facing teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average defensive team. The Bears have been even better recently, allowing an average of just 14.2 points in their last 5 games, which includes allowing an average of only 14.3 points to Washington, Washington State and USC.

Stanford has an efficient offense (6.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) but Cal’s defense has an advantage and they’ve already proven that they can stop good offensive teams. The Bears are offensively challenged (0.7 yppl worse than average) but Stanford is only 0.2 yppl better than average defensively and overall this game should be very even from the line of scrimmage with Cal projected to run 10 more plays than Stanford will (because Stanford has a big-play, quick strike offense and Cal is more methodical). My math model favors the Bears by 1.