Game Analysis

Lean – Over (62.5) – San Jose State (-3/-3.5)  37   South Florida  31

San Jose State was 0.5 yards per play better than average offensively this season, averaging 6.6 yppl against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average offense. That attack got better when Walker Eget took over at quarterback from Emmett Brown. Brown averaged 6.9 on 226 pass plays against teams that would allow 7.1 yppp to an average quarterback while Eget averaged 7.9 yppp against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp to an average QB. Eget is more interception prone but overall the Spartans were better offensively after the quarterback change.

WR Nick Nash, who led the nation in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns, has left the team to prepare for the NFL combine. That sounds like a major loss but it’s really not. Nash was targeted 176 times, which was 37 more than the second most in the nation, and his 7.9 yards per target is not only worse than average for a wide receiver but it is also 1.2 YPT worse than the rest of the wide receivers on the Spartans, who averaged 9.1 YPT. Nash had a slightly better success rate than the rest of the San Jose State receivers but if I value Nash strictly on success rate, compared to the rest of the wide receivers, and ignored his lower YPT he would still be only worth 0.6 points, which is what I decided to adjust.

San Jose State’s pass-heavy attack (66% pass plays) should work well against a South Florida defense that is decent defending the run (0.1 yprp better than average) but was 1.0 yppp worse than average against the pass (7.0 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would combine for 6.0 yppp against an average defense). South Florida will be without one impact player, as S Tawfiq Byard has decided to transfer and is not on the depth chart for this game. Byard played closer to the line of scrimmage and will affect the run more than the pass. As he was 4th on the team in tackles, including 8 for loss (2 sacks) while breaking up just 1 pass. Byard is worth a bit less than a point taking into account that San Jose State throws twice as often as they run, and I made no adjustment for starting DT Doug Blue Eli leaving, as he had just 17 tackles and only 1.5 for loss.

The South Florida offense also had a change of quarterback mid-season, but the offense under Bryum Brown has the same rating as it did in the last 7 games with Bryce Archie at quarterback, as the offense was 0.2 yards per play worse than average under both starting quarterbacks.

San Jose State’s defense was 0.2 yppl better than average for the season (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average defense), but both starting cornerbacks have hit the portal and will not play in this game. DJ Harvey, who signed with USC, is the biggest loss as he not only had 10 passes defended (4 of them interceptions) but also had 7 total tackles for loss. I value those two at 3.0 points in this game, which is enhanced by the 83 plays from scrimmage that I expect from USF.

After all the adjustments I get San Jose State by 6.2 points with a total of 68 points (assuming the better than average weather (+1.0 points) that is forecasted holds up). I’ll Lean Over at 63 points or less.