Game Analysis
South Florida (-5 ½) 38 CINCINNATI 27
South Florida isn’t quite ready to play with the big boys yet but the Bulls should be able to handle a mediocre Cincy squad. The Bearcats are mediocre on both sides of the ball while USF is good defensively (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average team) and explosive offensively (503 yards per game at 7.5 yppl).
I’ll assume Cincinnati quarterback Hayden Moore will play this week after missing last week’s game with a sprained ankle (he’s listed as questionable) but the math model still gives South Florida a profitable 54.8% chance of covering. I have no reason to argue with the math.
Rush
-
Run Plays
40.4
46.4
-
Run Yards
254.0
219.6
-
YPRP
6.6
5.1
Pass
-
Pass Comp
15.8
20.8
-
Pass Att
28.0
37.2
-
Comp %
56.4%
55.9%
-
Pass Yards
239.6
221.2
-
Sacks
1.4
2.2
-
Sack Yards
11.8
15.0
-
Sack %
4.8%
5.6%
-
Pass Plays
29.4
39.4
-
Net Pass Yards
227.8
206.2
-
YPPP
7.7
5.2
Total
-
Total Plays
69.8
85.8
-
Total Yards
493.6
440.8
-
YPPL
7.1
5.1
TO
-
Int
0.6
1.2
-
Int %
2.1%
3.2%
-
Fumbles
0.4
1.2
-
Turnovers
1.0
2.4
Rush
-
Run Plays
35.2
38.0
-
Run Yards
137.2
157.0
-
YPRP
4.3
4.5
Pass
-
Pass Comp
22.0
20.6
-
Pass Att
36.8
35.2
-
Comp %
59.8%
58.5%
-
Pass Yards
264.4
269.0
-
Sacks
2.0
2.4
-
Sack Yards
13.6
15.4
-
Sack %
5.2%
6.4%
-
Pass Plays
38.8
37.6
-
Net Pass Yards
250.8
253.6
-
YPPP
6.5
6.7
Total
-
Total Plays
74.0
75.6
-
Total Yards
401.6
426.0
-
YPPL
5.4
5.6
TO
-
Int
1.8
2.0
-
Int %
4.9%
5.7%
-
Fumbles
0.8
0.6
-
Turnovers
2.6
2.6
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/03/16 Towson |
56-20 |
0.0
W
|
37/46 |
232/155 |
6.3/3.4 |
1/3 |
13/16 |
25/41 |
213/142 |
1/1 |
2/3 |
7.9/3.2 |
445/297 |
7.0/3.3 |
| 09/10/16 Northern Ill |
48-17 |
-15.0
W
|
50/39 |
293/169 |
5.9/4.3 |
1/0 |
25/22 |
39/35 |
365/149 |
0/0 |
0/2 |
9.4/4.0 |
658/318 |
7.4/4.2 |
| 09/17/16 @ Syracuse |
45-20 |
-14.0
W
|
31/54 |
251/207 |
8.1/3.8 |
0/1 |
14/32 |
29/50 |
209/344 |
0/2 |
1/1 |
7.0/6.7 |
460/551 |
7.5/5.2 |
| 09/24/16 Florida St. |
35-55 |
+5.5
L
|
38/60 |
315/495 |
8.3/8.3 |
0/1 |
5/11 |
14/19 |
135/152 |
2/0 |
3/3 |
7.9/6.9 |
450/647 |
8.2/7.9 |
| 10/01/16 @ Cincinnati |
45-20 |
-5.5
W
|
46/33 |
238/147 |
5.2/4.5 |
0/1 |
22/23 |
33/41 |
217/244 |
0/3 |
1/2 |
6.4/5.7 |
455/391 |
5.7/5.1 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/01/16 Tennessee-Martin |
28-7 |
0.0
W
|
33/45 |
152/199 |
4.6/4.4 |
2/1 |
21/12 |
34/26 |
252/129 |
1/2 |
1/3 |
7.2/4.4 |
404/328 |
5.9/4.4 |
| 09/10/16 @ Purdue |
38-20 |
-6.0
W
|
43/25 |
198/103 |
4.6/4.1 |
0/0 |
19/32 |
32/57 |
246/401 |
0/5 |
1/0 |
7.5/7.0 |
444/504 |
5.8/6.1 |
| 09/15/16 Houston |
16-40 |
+7.0
L
|
22/50 |
51/222 |
2.3/4.4 |
0/1 |
22/24 |
39/36 |
256/300 |
3/2 |
3/3 |
6.1/7.7 |
307/522 |
4.8/5.9 |
| 09/24/16 Miami Ohio |
27-20 |
-17.5
L
|
45/24 |
206/100 |
4.6/4.2 |
1/1 |
25/13 |
38/24 |
256/221 |
2/1 |
3/5 |
6.2/7.6 |
462/321 |
5.4/6.1 |
| 10/01/16 South Florida |
20-45 |
+5.5
L
|
33/46 |
147/238 |
4.5/5.2 |
1/0 |
23/22 |
41/33 |
244/217 |
3/0 |
2/1 |
5.7/6.4 |
391/455 |
5.1/5.7 |
South Florida
@ 
Cincinnati