Game Analysis

VANDERBILT (-5 ½)  24   South Carolina  21

Three years ago South Carolina had their 3^rd consecutive 11-2 season under former coach Steve Spurrier. Now the Gamecocks are an underdog to a Vanderbilt team that is 7-17 under coach Derek Martin. That’s a pretty steep decline. New head coach Will Muschamp gets another chance as an SEC head coach after a failed stint at Florida and I rate the Gamecocks at worse than average on both sides of the ball. Not worse than average by SEC standards, but worse than average on a national scale (0.2 yards per play worse than average on offense and 0.4 yppl worse than average on defense).

Vanderbilt is even worse offensively, as they’ve averaged only 4.6 yppl the last two seasons, but the Commorodes could be a bit better offensively this season if Kyle Shurmer can improve significantly from the pathetic 42.7% completion rate on 103 passes as a freshman last season. I suspect he’ll improve significantly, as most sophomores do but Vandy still rates at 0.7 yppl worse than average offensively (they were -1.0 yppl last season).

Thankfully, the Commodores can play defense. Vandy allowed just 21.0 points per game and rated at 0.6 yppl better than average last season and have their top players back this year. I rate the Vanderbilt defense at 0.8 yppl better than average to start this season and I don’t expect South Carolina to have much success moving the ball consistently against the group.

Vandy doesn’t figure to score many points either and the line on this game has gone up from an opening number of 3 points. My ratings favor Vandy by 3 ½ points so I’ll lean with the Gamecocks slightly since I agree with the opening line and not the line move.