Game Analysis

Arizona Bowl

Friday, December 30 – 2:30 pm Pacific

Air Force (-13 ½/-14)  37   South Alabama  22

Lean Over (57 ½)

This is one of those games that’s tough to pick. My math model sees this game as a blowout, with Air Force winning by 20 points, but South Alabama applies to a 66-16-3 ATS bowl situation. That angle is mostly playing on bad teams that are big underdogs and it works because the big bowl favorites generally aren’t as focused on preparing for the game as intensely as the big underdogs are. We’ve seen this multiple times so far this bowl season with double-digit underdogs at 5-1 ATS so far (Idaho and Wake Forest won straight up and Miami-Ohio only lost by 1 point due to two blocked kicks). I’m not so sure Air Force is the type of team that is going to lack in preparation, as focus and preparation are hallmarks of the military academies, who are a combined 31-14 ATS in bowl games over the years (games in which the team that prepares better usually covers the spread). However, only one of those military teams was favored by more than 7 points and that was Army against North Texas on Tuesday and the Cadets failed to cover in a 7 point win as an 11 point dog. Let’s examine the matchup.

The mismatch in this game is the Air Force option attack, which has really thrived in 4 games with backup quarterback Arion Worthman at the helm, going up against a South Alabama defense that can’t stop the run. The Air Force offense was 0.4 yards per play worse than average the first 9 weeks with Nate Romine at quarterback (5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 6.2 yppl to an average team) but the Falcons soared with Worthman at quarterback the final 4 games, averaging 37 points and 6.5 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team, including the upset of Boise State. There is a chance that Romine could play in this game (he’s questionable), but I don’t see why the coaching staff would make the change even if Romine were 100% healthy. South Alabama has a terrible run defense (5.7 yprp allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.6 yprp against an average team) and the Jaguars were 0.9 yprp worse than average against the two option teams that they faced (Georgia Southern and Nicholls). The math projects 418 rushing yards at 6.7 yprp and 494 total yards at 7.1 yards per play for Air Force in this game with Worthman at quarterback.

South Alabama’s only chance of keeping up is if they throw the ball more often than they normally do. The Jaguars are not a good running team (0.4 yprp worse than average) and Air Force has a very strong run defense (0.8 yprp better than average). However, Air Force has a terrible pass defense that I rate at 1.2 yards per pass play worse than average and South Alabama quarterback Dallas Davis is capable of taking advantage of that weakness. Davis was well below average this season, as his 6.7 yards per pass play came against teams that would allow 7.5 yppp to an average quarterback, but his rating is 0.4 yppp better than the Air Force pass defense and South Alabama is projected to average 6.8 yppp (only 4.0 yprp) and 338 total yards at 5.6 yards per play. My math model assumes that South Alabama will throw more than they normally do but they really need to open it up to have a chance in this game – and perhaps they will.

Overall the math favors Air Force by 20 points with a total of 60 points but that 66-16-3 ATS situation that favors South Alabama, along with the long-term success of double-digit dogs in bowl games (73-49-2 ATS since 1980), is enough to keep me from playing the math. I have no opinion on the side and I will lean Over 58 points or less.