Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **WAKE FOREST (+4)  28   Southern Methodist  22

SMU is not as good as they were last season and Wake Forest has been the better team so far this season, which bodes well for us getting points at home with the defensively strong Demon Deacons.

Wake Forest has been just 0.2 yards per play better than average offensively this season, and they averaged 8.6 yards per play with Deshawn Purdie in our 39-14 Best Bet win on them two weeks ago at Oregon State. Purdie might be at quarterback again with Robby Ashford listed as questionable. I didn’t think it made a difference with Ashford out when I made Wake a Best Bet at Oregon State and I don’t think it makes a difference which quarterback plays in this game, although Purdie was really good (270 yards on 27 pass plays).

SMU’s defense is only 0.1 yppl better than average (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team) when taking into account that they’ve faced backup quarterbacks (that are far worse than the starters) against Syracuse and Clemson. Wake Forest has a slight advantage with their offense against a mediocre SMU defense.

The big advantage for Wake in this game is their stellar defense going up against an overrated SMU offense that’s been just 0.5 yppl better than average this season (6.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team). That’s not nearly as good as a Wake Forest defense that has been the 6th best in the nation so far this season – allowing just 4.3 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average defensive team. That unit has faced 3 better than average offensive teams in NC State, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech and the Demon Deacons limited those 3 squads to just 4.9 yppl, which is 1.4 yppl better than the 6.3 yppl those teams would average against an average FBS defense.

In addition to being significantly better than SMU so far this season, Wake Forest applies to a 242-142-8 ATS home team off a bye situation.

Wake Forest is a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 or more and 1-Star to +1.