Game Analysis

TULANE (-3)  24   Southern Methodist  19

My math model would favor Tulane by 2.9 points at home against SMU even if the Mustangs’ starting quarterback Preston Stone were playing – and the line was Tulane -3.5 before news of Stone’s injury hit the market. The line went up to 5.5, which I thought was reasonable, but has now come back down to 3 points. I find that a bit odd unless the market expects backup quarterback Kevin Jennings to be as good as Stone was. Jennings has completed 18 of 24 passes and averaged 8.0 yards per pass play but he’s played mostly in mop-up duty against bad defensive teams that would combine to allow 8.1 yppp to an average FBS quarterback. Stone averaged 8.4 yppp against FBS opponents that would combine to allow 7.2 yppp to an average team and it’s doubtful that the coaching staff will let Jennings sling the ball down the field like Stone did (only 59% completions but at 15.2 yards per completion).

SMU’s defense is not quite as good as the numbers reflect, as the Mustangs were fortunate enough to face Temple’s horrible backup quarterback, playing half the game against Rice’s worst QB, and played mostly against East Carolina’s worst quarterback. I adjust for all of that and the Mustangs rate at 0.5 yards per play better than average defensively. Tulane’s defense is nearly as good, at 0.3 yppl better than average, and I trust Tulane’s veteran QB Michael Pratt – even without WR Keys (and possibly Jackson) – over a freshman backup.