Game Analysis

Lean – Under (63.5) – TCU (-7)  32   Southern Methodist  25

Both of these teams run their offenses at a fast pace but neither offense has been great at moving the consistently and both defensive units appear to be underrated.

SMU has managed just 5.2 yppl and 24.5 points per game in two games against FBS opponents, Louisiana Tech and Oklahoma, who would combine to allow 5.7 yppl to an average team and TCU’s defense has been solidly better than average despite the 45 points and 7.1 yppl they gave up to Colorado in the opener. That performance was actually decent considering how good Colorado’s offense is and TCU has since held Nicholls State to 6 points on 3.5 yppl (4.1 yppl would be average for an FBS defense) and Houston to 13 points on 4.0 yppl (5.2 yppl would be average). TCU’s defense is 0.6 yppl better than average, which is what I had that unit rated coming into the season. SMU will likely run a lot of plays but they’re projected to average only 4.8 yppl.

TCU’s offense has looked very good with 39.7 points and 522 yards per game but their impressive 6.6 yppl isn’t that impressive when you consider that their opponents are all bad defensive teams that would combine to allow 6.3 yppl to an average team. SMU has been really good defensively, holding Louisiana Tech to 14 points and 4.5 yppl and limiting Oklahoma’s elite attack to just 28 points and 5.2 yppl.  I don’t think they’ll likely continue to be that good but they look like an average or better defense and TCU’s offense is overrated.

I’ll lean Under 63 points or more.