Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Under (49.5) – Southern Methodist (-11.5)  26   EAST CAROLINA  16

This total is high based on how these teams have performed so far this season.

SMU has an offense that has been 0.4 yards per play worse than average (5.4 yppl against FBS teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team) and a defense that’s been 0.7 yppl better than average (5.2 yppl allowed to FBS teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average defense).

East Carolina, meanwhile, has been 0.2 yppl better than average defensively (6.0 yppl allowed to FBS teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppl against an average team) and the Pirates’ offense is one of the worst units in the nation, averaging just 15 points and 4.2 yppl against FBS teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average attack.

Both of these teams are significantly better on defense than they are on offense and this game is projected to play at an average pace (SMU plays faster than average and ECU plays slower than average). ECU is averaging 15 points in FBS games against teams that are 1.1 yppl worse defensively than SMU is and they’d project to score just 13.5 points (even with the perfect weather expected) based on this year’s games only. SMU, meanwhile, is averaging just 25 points against FBS teams that are 0.4 yppl worse defensively than ECU;s defense (adjusted for being at home). The Mustangs would be projected to score only 21.3 points based on this year’s games only.

My preseason ratings still have some weight this time of the season, which gets the projection higher, but I can’t justify a total above 48 points in this game – even with ideal conditions (no wind or rain).

The Under is a Strong Opinion at 48.5 points or more.