Game Analysis

NEW MEXICO (-9 ½)  36   San Jose State  22

San Jose State doesn’t matchup very well against New Mexico’s option attack, as the Spartans have one of the nation’s worst run defenses. San Jose State has surrendered 246 rushing yards per game at 6.4 yards per rushing play while facing a schedule of teams that would combine to average only 4.6 yprp against an average defensive team. That does not bode well against a Lobos’ attack that averaged 294 yards at 6.2 yprp and now has their more productive quarterback behind center due to an injury to starter Austin Apodaca. Lamar Jordan is once again the starter and it has puzzled me for 3 years why Apodaca kept getting chances to play. The reason given by the coaching staff is the he’s a better passer than Jordan is but that has not shown up in the stats. Apodaca has 107 of 203 career passes (52.7%) with an average of just 6.3 yards per pass play with the Lobos. Apodaca has run well so far this season and he’s averaged 5.9 yards per rushing play. Jordan, however, is the better runner, as he’s rushed for 1619 yards at 6.2 yprp, including 102 yards on 13 runs in half a game last week against Rutgers – his first action of this season. Jordan has the reputation of being an inferior passes but his career completion percentage of 53.1% is slightly better than that of Apodaca and Jordan has averaged a much better 7.5 yards per pass play on his 256 career pass plays. Jordan is an upgrade at quarterback and the Lobos should be able to run at will in this game while also having success through the air against a Spartans’ defense that has allowed 8.3 yards per pass play this season.

San Jose State’s offense has averaged 5.6 yards per play in their 4 games against teams that would combine to allow 6.2 yppl to an average team and their sub-par rushing attack isn’t likely to take full advantage of a bad New Mexico run defense that’s allowed 5.5 yprp (to teams that would average 4.5 yprp against an average team). Spartans’ quarterback Kenny Potter is questionable to play after missing the last 1 ½ games, but I suspect he’ll play. Potter isn’t likely to make as many mistakes as freshman Josh Love (5 interceptions on just 49 passes) but Potter is still a below average quarterback (-0.8 yppp last season and -0.9 yppp so far this season) and New Mexico actually has a pretty good secondary this season. The Lobos have allowed just 54.7% completions and only 5.0 yards per pass play to quarterbacks that would combine to average 5.5 yppp against an average defense.

My math model gives New Mexico a very profitable 57.0% chance of covering in this game based solely on the math but the Lobos apply to a negative 31-93-2 ATS first conference game situation that tempers my enthusiasm a bit. But, I still would rather have New Mexico minus the points despite the negative situation.