San Jose St. @

Fresno St.

Sat, Nov 26
CBS Sports Network
12:30 PM Pacific
Rotation: 181
Odds: Fresno St. +3.5, Total: 51.5

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – FRESNO STATE (+3 ½) 26   San Jose State  23

Fresno State is winless against FBS opponents this season but the Bulldogs have covered the spread in 5 of their last 6 games and are playing hard for their interim coach. Today the Bulldogs apply to a 116-45 ATS late season situation that plays on bad teams at home against other bad teams and I’m not so sure how much San Jose State really cares about this road game. The Spartans haven’t won a road game this season and their only two wins were not particularly impressive, as they barely beat a horrible Nevada team 14-10 and won by 6 against a sub-par UNLV team.

These teams actually rate pretty similarly with San Jose State at 0.8 yards per play worse than average offensively and 0.9 yppl worse than average on defense (-1.7 yppl overall) while Fresno is -1.4 yppl on offense (-1.6 yppl with Kline at QB) and only 0.3 yppl worse than average on defense (6.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average team. So, both teams are 1.7 yppl worse than average from the line of scrimmage and Fresno is at home. This game is a borderline math model play (it would qualify at +4) and the situation is favorable. I’ll consider Fresno State a Strong Opinion at +3 ½ points or more.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • San Jose St.
  • Fresno St.
SJST
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 32.4 43.1
  • Run Yards 128.6 273.3
  • YPRP 4.7 6.6




Pass





  • Pass Comp 18.5 13.7
  • Pass Att 32.5 22.2
  • Comp % 56.9% 61.7%
  • Pass Yards 232.1 184.7
  • Sacks 4.6 1.8
  • Sack Yards 23.6 11.9
  • Sack % 12.4% 7.5%
  • Pass Plays 37.1 24.0
  • Net Pass Yards 208.5 172.8
  • YPPP 5.6 7.2

Total

  • Total Plays 69.5 67.1
  • Total Yards 360.7 458.0
  • YPPL 5.2 6.8

TO


  • Int 1.4 0.7
  • Int % 4.3% 3.2%
  • Fumbles 0.4 0.5
  • Turnovers 1.8 1.2
 
  • Points 25.2 36.5
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