Game Analysis
Strong Opinion – FRESNO STATE (+3 ½) 26 San Jose State 23
Fresno State is winless against FBS opponents this season but the Bulldogs have covered the spread in 5 of their last 6 games and are playing hard for their interim coach. Today the Bulldogs apply to a 116-45 ATS late season situation that plays on bad teams at home against other bad teams and I’m not so sure how much San Jose State really cares about this road game. The Spartans haven’t won a road game this season and their only two wins were not particularly impressive, as they barely beat a horrible Nevada team 14-10 and won by 6 against a sub-par UNLV team.
These teams actually rate pretty similarly with San Jose State at 0.8 yards per play worse than average offensively and 0.9 yppl worse than average on defense (-1.7 yppl overall) while Fresno is -1.4 yppl on offense (-1.6 yppl with Kline at QB) and only 0.3 yppl worse than average on defense (6.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average team. So, both teams are 1.7 yppl worse than average from the line of scrimmage and Fresno is at home. This game is a borderline math model play (it would qualify at +4) and the situation is favorable. I’ll consider Fresno State a Strong Opinion at +3 ½ points or more.
Rush
-
Run Plays
32.4
43.1
-
Run Yards
128.6
273.3
-
YPRP
4.7
6.6
Pass
-
Pass Comp
18.5
13.7
-
Pass Att
32.5
22.2
-
Comp %
56.9%
61.7%
-
Pass Yards
232.1
184.7
-
Sacks
4.6
1.8
-
Sack Yards
23.6
11.9
-
Sack %
12.4%
7.5%
-
Pass Plays
37.1
24.0
-
Net Pass Yards
208.5
172.8
-
YPPP
5.6
7.2
Total
-
Total Plays
69.5
67.1
-
Total Yards
360.7
458.0
-
YPPL
5.2
6.8
TO
-
Int
1.4
0.7
-
Int %
4.3%
3.2%
-
Fumbles
0.4
0.5
-
Turnovers
1.8
1.2
Rush
-
Run Plays
33.1
50.4
-
Run Yards
107.5
269.4
-
YPRP
3.7
5.5
Pass
-
Pass Comp
17.7
13.3
-
Pass Att
34.3
21.7
-
Comp %
51.6%
61.3%
-
Pass Yards
212.9
176.4
-
Sacks
2.5
0.9
-
Sack Yards
15.0
6.9
-
Sack %
6.8%
4.0%
-
Pass Plays
36.8
22.6
-
Net Pass Yards
197.9
169.5
-
YPPP
5.4
7.5
Total
-
Total Plays
69.9
73.0
-
Total Yards
320.4
445.8
-
YPPL
4.6
6.1
TO
-
Int
1.1
0.2
-
Int %
3.2%
0.9%
-
Fumbles
0.3
0.3
-
Turnovers
1.4
0.5
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/03/16 @ Tulsa |
10-45 |
+5.0
L
|
28/53 |
77/335 |
2.8/6.3 |
2/0 |
16/13 |
29/25 |
210/183 |
1/0 |
4/4 |
6.4/6.3 |
287/518 |
4.7/6.3 |
| 09/10/16 Portland State |
66-35 |
0.0
W
|
54/39 |
433/213 |
8.0/5.5 |
0/3 |
14/12 |
21/24 |
222/255 |
0/3 |
2/1 |
9.7/10.2 |
655/468 |
8.5/7.3 |
| 09/17/16 Utah |
17-34 |
+13.0
L
|
21/31 |
103/249 |
4.9/8.0 |
1/1 |
21/21 |
39/30 |
203/227 |
2/1 |
10/3 |
4.1/6.9 |
306/476 |
4.4/7.4 |
| 09/24/16 @ Iowa St. |
10-44 |
+7.0
L
|
43/32 |
197/187 |
4.6/5.8 |
0/1 |
13/22 |
27/29 |
138/302 |
4/0 |
4/0 |
4.5/10.4 |
335/489 |
4.5/8.0 |
| 10/01/16 @ New Mexico |
41-48 |
+9.5
W
|
23/62 |
144/451 |
6.3/7.3 |
0/0 |
16/4 |
30/8 |
299/42 |
1/1 |
3/1 |
9.1/4.7 |
443/493 |
7.9/6.9 |
| 10/08/16 Hawaii |
17-34 |
-3.0
L
|
33/28 |
191/199 |
5.8/7.1 |
0/2 |
18/24 |
33/33 |
149/272 |
3/0 |
6/2 |
3.8/7.8 |
340/471 |
4.7/7.5 |
| 10/15/16 Nevada |
14-10 |
-2.5
W
|
49/31 |
179/128 |
3.7/4.1 |
0/0 |
11/9 |
17/21 |
118/132 |
0/2 |
4/2 |
5.6/5.7 |
297/260 |
4.2/4.8 |
| 10/21/16 @ San Diego St. |
3-42 |
+23.0
L
|
23/43 |
96/299 |
4.2/7.0 |
0/0 |
18/13 |
37/18 |
121/163 |
0/1 |
5/1 |
2.9/8.6 |
217/462 |
3.3/7.5 |
| 10/29/16 UNLV |
30-24 |
+2.5
W
|
36/37 |
160/236 |
4.4/6.4 |
0/0 |
24/12 |
40/30 |
268/166 |
0/1 |
4/3 |
6.1/5.0 |
428/402 |
5.4/5.7 |
| 11/04/16 @ Boise St. |
31-45 |
+29.0
W
|
32/53 |
226/304 |
7.1/5.7 |
0/0 |
23/16 |
36/21 |
269/213 |
1/0 |
1/1 |
7.3/9.7 |
495/517 |
7.2/6.9 |
| 11/19/16 Air Force |
38-41 |
+11.0
W
|
36/61 |
149/464 |
4.1/7.6 |
1/1 |
25/3 |
37/7 |
310/28 |
2/1 |
5/1 |
7.4/3.5 |
459/492 |
5.9/7.1 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/03/16 @ Nebraska |
10-43 |
+28.5
L
|
22/50 |
52/294 |
2.4/5.9 |
0/0 |
24/6 |
43/13 |
222/114 |
2/0 |
4/0 |
4.7/8.8 |
274/408 |
4.0/6.5 |
| 09/10/16 Sacramento State |
31-3 |
0.0
W
|
41/30 |
222/107 |
5.4/3.6 |
1/0 |
22/9 |
42/25 |
255/78 |
1/2 |
2/3 |
5.8/2.8 |
477/185 |
5.6/3.2 |
| 09/17/16 @ Toledo |
17-52 |
+20.5
L
|
22/55 |
86/318 |
3.9/5.8 |
0/0 |
13/16 |
26/28 |
168/257 |
0/0 |
5/0 |
5.4/9.2 |
254/575 |
4.8/6.9 |
| 09/24/16 Tulsa |
41-48 |
+14.0
W
|
42/64 |
142/378 |
3.4/5.9 |
1/1 |
21/22 |
45/32 |
266/246 |
1/1 |
2/4 |
5.7/6.8 |
408/624 |
4.6/6.2 |
| 10/01/16 @ UNLV |
20-45 |
+9.5
L
|
30/53 |
99/371 |
3.3/7.0 |
0/0 |
16/8 |
45/16 |
276/129 |
1/0 |
2/0 |
5.9/8.1 |
375/500 |
4.9/7.2 |
| 10/08/16 @ Nevada |
22-27 |
+9.5
W
|
47/47 |
265/242 |
5.6/5.1 |
2/1 |
16/14 |
28/22 |
193/148 |
0/0 |
1/1 |
6.7/6.4 |
458/390 |
6.0/5.6 |
| 10/14/16 San Diego St. |
3-17 |
+17.0
W
|
22/58 |
90/296 |
4.1/5.1 |
0/0 |
16/7 |
26/12 |
127/71 |
2/0 |
2/1 |
4.5/5.5 |
217/367 |
4.3/5.2 |
| 10/22/16 @ Utah St. |
20-38 |
+17.0
L
|
38/38 |
120/208 |
3.2/5.5 |
0/0 |
27/17 |
44/29 |
199/188 |
0/0 |
1/0 |
4.4/6.5 |
319/396 |
3.8/5.9 |
| 10/28/16 Air Force |
21-31 |
+14.0
W
|
28/71 |
48/331 |
1.7/4.7 |
0/1 |
19/5 |
38/9 |
301/97 |
4/0 |
2/0 |
7.5/10.8 |
349/428 |
5.1/5.4 |
| 11/05/16 @ Colorado St. |
0-37 |
+15.5
L
|
29/48 |
103/257 |
3.6/5.4 |
0/0 |
12/18 |
25/25 |
125/237 |
1/0 |
5/0 |
4.2/9.5 |
228/494 |
3.9/6.8 |
| 11/19/16 Hawaii |
13-14 |
+3.0
W
|
51/20 |
220/68 |
4.3/3.4 |
0/0 |
13/20 |
23/31 |
102/208 |
0/1 |
1/3 |
4.3/6.1 |
322/276 |
4.3/5.1 |
San Jose St.
@ 
Fresno St.