Game Analysis

BOISE STATE (-29)  42   San Jose State  12

Boise State used to destroy weaker teams on their magic blue carpet but the Broncos are just 2-18 ATS as a conference favorite of more than 11 points the last 6 seasons, including wins of just 11 points and 5 points this season as 21 1/2 and 28 1/2 point favorites over Utah State and Colorado State.  My math model favors Boise by 32 1/2 points over a horrible San Jose State team that will have trouble moving the ball against a stingy Boise State defense that is 0.6 yards per play better than average and that allowed just 10 points each to UL Lafayette and Utah State – the two bad offensive teams that they’ve faced this season. San Jose State’s offense is now the worst offense that Boise has faced and the Spartans scored just 13 combined points in two games against the better than average defensive teams that they’ve faced (Tulsa and San Diego State). I don’t trust Boise State laying a ton of points, so I’ll shave a couple of points off my math model predicted margin.