Game Analysis
Lean – San Diego State (-7) 26 NEVADA 15
Nevada looks like they’ll be improved offensively with freshman QB Carter Jones taking over behind center after being the #3 QB entering last week’s game. It’s a small sample but Jones’ 11 for 16 passing for 121 yards certainly gives the Wolf Pack fans some hope after horrible quarterback play by Chubba Purdy and AJ Bianco.
It’s not going to be easy for Jones in his first start against a very good Aztecs’ defense that’s allowed an average of just 12.6 points and 4.3 yards per play this season, including shutting out an otherwise decent Cal offense a few weeks ago.
San Diego State’s offense had their best game of the season last week with 45 points on 541 yards at 8.3 yards per play but I still rate the Aztecs at 0.5 yppl worse than average offensively and they could struggle a bit against a decent Nevada defense that’s been just 0.2 yppl worse than average.
However, between their great defense and excellent special teams I expect the Aztecs to enjoy good field position in this game and San Diego State is a Lean at -7 or less.
Rush
-
Run Plays
39.8
30.6
-
Run Yards
186.0
122.6
-
YPRP
4.7
4.0
Pass
-
Pass Comp
14.8
16.0
-
Pass Att
23.4
31.0
-
Comp %
63.2%
51.6%
-
Pass Yards
184.6
168.4
-
Sacks
1.0
2.4
-
Sack Yards
9.8
18.6
-
Sack %
4.1%
7.2%
-
Pass Plays
24.4
33.4
-
Net Pass Yards
174.8
149.8
-
YPPP
7.2
4.5
Total
-
Total Plays
64.2
64.0
-
Total Yards
360.8
272.4
-
YPPL
5.6
4.3
TO
-
Int
0.4
0.6
-
Int %
1.7%
1.9%
-
Fumbles
0.0
0.2
-
Turnovers
0.4
0.8
Rush
-
Run Plays
36.0
31.8
-
Run Yards
180.4
161.8
-
YPRP
5.0
5.1
Pass
-
Pass Comp
13.2
21.6
-
Pass Att
24.2
31.0
-
Comp %
54.5%
69.7%
-
Pass Yards
148.0
223.8
-
Sacks
1.2
2.6
-
Sack Yards
7.6
17.4
-
Sack %
4.7%
7.7%
-
Pass Plays
25.4
33.6
-
Net Pass Yards
140.4
206.4
-
YPPP
5.5
6.1
Total
-
Total Plays
61.4
65.4
-
Total Yards
320.8
368.2
-
YPPL
5.2
5.6
TO
-
Int
2.0
0.8
-
Int %
8.3%
2.6%
-
Fumbles
0.8
0.2
-
Turnovers
2.8
1.0
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2025 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 08/28/25 Stony Brook |
42-0 |
0.0
W
|
53/24 |
226/73 |
4.3/3.0 |
0/0 |
16/10 |
29/25 |
227/73 |
0/0 |
0/3 |
7.8/2.6 |
453/146 |
5.5/2.8 |
| 09/06/25 @ Washington St. |
13-36 |
+1.5
L
|
27/33 |
117/145 |
4.3/4.4 |
0/0 |
15/28 |
30/42 |
103/258 |
0/0 |
3/0 |
3.1/6.1 |
220/403 |
3.7/5.4 |
| 09/20/25 California |
34-0 |
+14.0
W
|
30/27 |
143/87 |
4.8/3.2 |
0/1 |
15/19 |
18/42 |
180/220 |
0/2 |
1/3 |
9.5/4.9 |
323/307 |
6.6/4.3 |
| 09/27/25 @ Northern Ill |
6-3 |
-2.0
W
|
42/38 |
162/135 |
3.9/3.6 |
0/0 |
14/7 |
22/16 |
105/37 |
2/1 |
1/2 |
4.6/2.1 |
267/172 |
4.1/3.1 |
| 10/03/25 Colorado St. |
45-24 |
-6.5
W
|
47/31 |
282/173 |
6.0/5.6 |
0/0 |
14/16 |
18/30 |
259/161 |
0/0 |
0/4 |
14.4/4.7 |
541/334 |
8.3/5.1 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2025 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 08/30/25 @ Penn St. |
11-46 |
+43.5
W
|
28/35 |
71/172 |
2.5/4.9 |
2/0 |
11/29 |
21/35 |
110/290 |
1/0 |
3/1 |
4.6/8.1 |
181/462 |
3.5/6.5 |
| 09/06/25 Sacramento State |
20-17 |
0.0
W
|
47/38 |
270/164 |
5.7/4.3 |
0/0 |
13/12 |
23/17 |
168/152 |
2/1 |
0/3 |
7.3/7.6 |
438/316 |
6.3/5.4 |
| 09/13/25 Middle Tenn St |
13-14 |
-9.5
L
|
32/26 |
226/133 |
7.1/5.1 |
0/0 |
14/27 |
25/44 |
143/219 |
2/1 |
3/4 |
5.1/4.6 |
369/352 |
6.2/4.8 |
| 09/20/25 @ Western Kentucky |
16-31 |
+9.5
L
|
39/30 |
207/161 |
5.3/5.4 |
1/1 |
16/22 |
31/33 |
164/201 |
2/1 |
0/2 |
5.3/5.7 |
371/362 |
5.3/5.6 |
| 10/04/25 @ Fresno St. |
17-20 |
+13.5
W
|
34/30 |
128/179 |
3.8/6.0 |
1/0 |
12/18 |
21/26 |
117/170 |
3/1 |
0/3 |
5.6/5.9 |
245/349 |
4.5/5.9 |