Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – Penn State Team Total Under (30.5 -120)

Rutgers (+19.5)  10   PENN STATE  24

Rutgers is offensively challenged, and they’ve scored just 23 points total in 3 games against elite defensive teams Michigan, Ohio State and Iowa. However, the Scarlet Knights’ defense is stingy and Penn State has a worse than average offense that’s managed just 5.0 yards per play this season (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average attack). Rutgers’ defense has not given up more than 28 points to any opposing offense this season and that was to an elite Ohio State attack, as the Buckeyes scored one TD on defense to get to 35 points. They also held an elite Michigan attack to just 24 points (Michigan also had a defensive TD). No other team has scored more than 24 points against the Knights and it’s likely that the Nittany Lioins won’t top 24 points either.

Penn State has managed to average 34.9 points in 9 games against FBS opponents but that’s a mirage. The Lions have averaged just 362 total yards at 5.0 yppl in those games and quarterback Drew Allar is trending in the wrong direction after starting the season with 325 yards at 11.2 yards per attempt against West Virginia. Since then, Allar has averaged only 5.1 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 5.7 yppp to an average quarterback) and the rushing attack is also below average (4.5 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.9 yprp). Rutgers’ defense has been 0.7 yppl better than average (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defense) and Penn State is projected to average only 4.7 yppl and tally a below average 340 yards on against that good defense on a day with double-digit winds expected throughout the game.

Penn State is hoping that a change in offensive coordinator will help but there isn’t much he can change in a week’s time and Rutgers didn’t allow more than 28 points to Ohio State or Michigan’s offense. Penn State would likely need a defensive touchdown to have a chance at getting to 30 points in a game in which I think they play it conservatively knowing that their defense is likely to shut down Rutgers’ sub-par attack.

There is Best Bet value on Rutgers at +20 or more but I don’t trust their offense enough. I think the better play is a 1-Star Best Bet on Penn State’s Team Total Under 30 points or more.