Rutgers @

Michigan

Sat, Sep 23
9:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 345
Odds: Michigan -24, Total: 44

Game Analysis

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Lean – Rutgers (+24)  12   MICHIGAN  31

Big underdogs tend to cover games with low totals and Rutgers has a good defense that’s allowed just 10 points per game on 4.0 yards per play (although those teams would average just 4.5 yppl against an average defense). The concern is that Rutgers’ below average offense (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team) won’t be able to score more than 7 points against a Michigan defense that’s yielded 7 points or fewer in all 3 of their games. All 3 teams that Michigan faced have a worse offense than Rutgers and my math projects 11.4 points for the Knights. There is some line value here and Rutgers applies to a 241-139-12 ATS big road underdog situation.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Rutgers
  • Michigan
RUTG
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 42.3 24.7
  • Run Yards 215.0 87.3
  • YPRP 5.1 3.5




Pass





  • Pass Comp 11.3 20.7
  • Pass Att 22.0 40.0
  • Comp % 51.5% 51.7%
  • Pass Yards 133.7 200.7
  • Sacks 0.3 3.3
  • Sack Yards 0.7 16.7
  • Sack % 1.5% 7.7%
  • Pass Plays 22.3 43.3
  • Net Pass Yards 133.0 184.0
  • YPPP 6.0 4.2

Total

  • Total Plays 64.7 68.0
  • Total Yards 348.0 271.3
  • YPPL 5.4 4.0

TO


  • Int 0.0 1.7
  • Int % 0.0% 4.2%
  • Fumbles 0.7 0.3
  • Turnovers 0.7 2.0
 
  • Points 31.7 10.0
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