Game Analysis
Lean – Rutgers (+24) 12 MICHIGAN 31
Big underdogs tend to cover games with low totals and Rutgers has a good defense that’s allowed just 10 points per game on 4.0 yards per play (although those teams would average just 4.5 yppl against an average defense). The concern is that Rutgers’ below average offense (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team) won’t be able to score more than 7 points against a Michigan defense that’s yielded 7 points or fewer in all 3 of their games. All 3 teams that Michigan faced have a worse offense than Rutgers and my math projects 11.4 points for the Knights. There is some line value here and Rutgers applies to a 241-139-12 ATS big road underdog situation.
Rush
-
Run Plays
42.3
24.7
-
Run Yards
215.0
87.3
-
YPRP
5.1
3.5
Pass
-
Pass Comp
11.3
20.7
-
Pass Att
22.0
40.0
-
Comp %
51.5%
51.7%
-
Pass Yards
133.7
200.7
-
Sacks
0.3
3.3
-
Sack Yards
0.7
16.7
-
Sack %
1.5%
7.7%
-
Pass Plays
22.3
43.3
-
Net Pass Yards
133.0
184.0
-
YPPP
6.0
4.2
Total
-
Total Plays
64.7
68.0
-
Total Yards
348.0
271.3
-
YPPL
5.4
4.0
TO
-
Int
0.0
1.7
-
Int %
0.0%
4.2%
-
Fumbles
0.7
0.3
-
Turnovers
0.7
2.0
Rush
-
Run Plays
31.0
28.0
-
Run Yards
172.7
91.7
-
YPRP
5.6
3.3
Pass
-
Pass Comp
19.3
14.0
-
Pass Att
24.0
25.3
-
Comp %
80.5%
55.3%
-
Pass Yards
248.7
129.0
-
Sacks
0.3
2.7
-
Sack Yards
4.3
16.3
-
Sack %
1.4%
9.5%
-
Pass Plays
24.3
28.0
-
Net Pass Yards
244.3
112.7
-
YPPP
10.0
4.0
Total
-
Total Plays
55.3
56.0
-
Total Yards
417.0
204.3
-
YPPL
7.5
3.6
TO
-
Int
1.0
1.0
-
Int %
4.2%
3.9%
-
Fumbles
0.3
0.3
-
Turnovers
1.3
1.3
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2023 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/03/23 Northwestern |
24-7 |
-6.0
W
|
43/17 |
128/45 |
3.0/2.6 |
1/0 |
17/23 |
29/40 |
163/149 |
0/2 |
0/5 |
5.6/3.3 |
291/194 |
4.0/3.1 |
09/09/23 Temple |
36-7 |
-8.5
W
|
50/23 |
261/76 |
5.2/3.3 |
1/0 |
10/20 |
21/48 |
190/218 |
0/2 |
1/1 |
8.6/4.4 |
451/294 |
6.3/4.1 |
09/16/23 Virginia Tech |
35-16 |
-7.0
W
|
34/34 |
256/141 |
7.5/4.1 |
0/1 |
7/19 |
16/32 |
46/185 |
0/1 |
0/4 |
2.9/5.1 |
302/326 |
6.0/4.7 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2023 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/02/23 East Carolina |
30-3 |
-36.0
L
|
31/26 |
150/103 |
4.8/4.0 |
0/0 |
26/15 |
31/29 |
290/116 |
0/1 |
0/0 |
9.4/4.0 |
440/219 |
7.1/4.0 |
09/09/23 UNLV |
35-7 |
-37.5
L
|
33/26 |
184/77 |
5.6/3.0 |
0/0 |
24/13 |
28/26 |
313/117 |
0/0 |
0/5 |
11.2/3.8 |
497/194 |
8.1/3.4 |
09/16/23 Bowling Green |
31-6 |
-40.5
L
|
29/32 |
184/95 |
6.3/3.0 |
1/1 |
8/14 |
13/21 |
130/105 |
3/2 |
1/3 |
9.3/4.4 |
314/200 |
7.3/3.6 |