Game Analysis

Miami-Florida (+2.5)  21   Rutgers  18

With this game being played in Yankee Stadium, I suspect they’ll be significantly more Rutgers’ fans (from nearby New Jersey) than Miami fans that are willing to leave the warmth of Florida to travel to the cold of the Bronx. However, I’d still rather have the ‘Canes here, as I think the line has overadjusted.

With star QB Tyler Van Dyke transferring, and backup Emory Williams injured the start at quarterback for the Hurricanes will go to Jacurri Brown. Brown didn’t play at all this season, but he struggled in the pass game last season – averaging just 3.2 yards on 53 pass plays. Brown is a good runner, as he tallied 286 yards on 48 runs in 2022. Miami actually won the lone game in which Brown started and played throughout, beating Georgia Tech 35-14 with the offense averaging 6.0 yards per play, but he was terrible in every other appearance. I adjusted based on his overall offensive performance versus Van Dyke’s numbers from last season and then adjusted down more for all of the other Hurricanes’ offensive players not playing in this game, which includes WR Colbie Young and two starting offensive linemen (C Lee and RG Cohen), who are pursuing the NFL.

Miami ran the ball about two-thirds of the time when Brown was in the game last season, including 41 runs against 20 pass plays in the game he started, and I expect a similar ratio in this game, which will help given that I project Miami to gain considerably more per run play than per pass play with Brown at quarterback. The pace of play will also be much lower with significantly more run plays, which lowers the total points projection by 3.1 points.

Rutgers has a good defense (0.4 yppl better than average) but star CB Max Melton has declared for the NFL draft and he is skipping this game. His absence makes the Scarlet Knights’ defense only 0.2 yppl better than average but it probably won’t matter nearly as much in this game with Miami likely running the ball a lot. I project 314 yards at 5.0 yppl for the Hurricanes.

Miami’s defense was 0.5 yppl better than average this season but not having their two best defensive backs puts them close to average heading into this game. Starting safeties Kamren Kinchens and James Williams have announced their intention to enter the NFL draft and Kinchens has already stated that he won’t play in this game. There has been no official announcement from Williams, but I’m going to assume he’s out too.

Rutgers isn’t likely to take full advantage of Miami’s back end with a quarterback that’s completed just 47.8% of his passes this season, but Miami’s two safeties are also good in run support (leading tackler and #3 tackler) and RB Kyle Monangai (1099 yards at 5.1 ypr) should benefit. Rutgers’ offense is 0.5 yppl worse than average for the season and Miami still has some great players on that defense, including Francisco Mauigoa (#2 tackler, including 17 tackles for loss) and Rueben Bain, who had 7.5 sacks. I project just 259 yards at 5.0 yppl for Rutgers.

Overall, the math favors Miami by 3.6 points with 39.0 total points, but it’s possible that Jacurri Brown could be worse that I project.