Game Analysis

Lean – Kansas State (-6.5)  33   Rutgers  22

Lean – Over (50.5)

Before adjusting for opt outs and transfers my math model would have favored Kansas State by 13.3 points in this game against a lucky Rutgers team that was out played 5.4 yards per play to 6.3 yppl in games against FBS teams but managed to outscored opponents by 0.6 points per game because they only turned the ball over 8 times all season, which is quite random for a team with an inaccurate quarterback (just 54.8% completions.

The Rutgers’ offense averaged a modest 5.5 yards per play in games against FBS opponents, excluding the Nebraska game, which was played in heavy winds (the lost 7-14). Their opponents in those games would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average attack, so the Scarlet Knights have been 0.2 yppl better than average offensively but have scored more than they should have because of their extreme turnover luck (just 6 offensive turnovers in those 10 games). Star RB Kyle Monangai has announced his intention of entering the NFL draft and he announced on Tuesday that he would not play in this game. He is worth 1.1 points.

Kansas State’s defense was 0.8 yppl better than average this season but the Wildcats will be without NFL-bound CB Jacob Parrish, who led the team with 8 passes defended and supported the run very well for a corner (50 tackles is 5th on the team). Parrish is worth 1.6 points based on my algorithm, but the Wildcats still have a significant advantage over the mediocre Rutgers’ attack, which I project to gain 377 yards at 5.4 yppl even in perfect dome conditions (the Chase Field roof has historically been closed for this game)

Kansas State’s offense was 1.2 yppl better than average in the regular season but they’ll be without star RB DJ Giddens, who ran for 1343 yards at 6.6 ypr this season and also contributes some to the passing game with 7.4 yards per target on 34 targets, compared to just 4.0 YPT on 33 targets for the other backs. The other running backs combined for 6.0 ypr, so they’re more than capable of running the ball effectively against a bad Rutgers’ run defense. However, Giddens averaged 7.4 yards per target on 34 targets in the pass game, compared to just 4.0 YPT on 33 targets for the other backs and his value in the pass game is just as much as it is in the rush attack. Kansas State is also without one of their starting offensive linemen and their #2 WR Keagan Johnson, whose 7.6 yards per target will be replaced by 4 guys (not including leading WR Brown) that combined for just 6.6 YPT. Overall, the Wildcats’ offense projects to be 3.3 points worse without the 3 starters.

Rutgers’ defense is not as good as the 25.4 points per game they allowed to FBS opponents, as one game was played in a windstorm (I also took that game out of their offensive numbers) and Rutgers allowed 406 yards at 6.5 yppl in the other 10 FBS games while facing teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average defense. I rate the Scarlet Knights’ defense at 0.5 yppl worse than average after taking out the garbage time yards they allowed against Akron and Kansas State’s offense is still 0.7 yppl better than average without those 3 starters. I project 451 yards at 7.2 yppl for the Wildcats in this game.

Kansas State lost their regular season finale 21-29 at Iowa State, but the Wildcats are 34-9 ATS in their next game after a loss and spread loss since 2009, including 16-3 ATS under coach Klieman (2-0 in bowls). Kansas State is the better team and I’ll lean with the Wildcats at -7 or less and will Lean Over 51 or less.