Game Analysis

WESTERN KENTUCKY (-17)  36   Rice  21

The big question in this game is how well the Western Kentucky offense will function without record setting quarterback Brandon Doughty pulling the trigger. Western Kentucky averaged 44 points per game in each of the last two seasons with Doughty behind center and former USF starter Mike White takes over the reins this season. Doughty completed 71.9% of his passes last season while Mike White has completed only 51.6% of his 417 career passes. That number should go up in a better system with better coaching but it would be a miracle for an previously inaccurate quarterback to come anywhere close to accomplishing what Doughty accomplished the last two seasons. Western Kentucky’s pass attack was 2.3 yards per pass play better than average last season, which was among the best in the nation, and White’s compensated career rating is 0.9 yppp worse than average (5.7 yppp against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp to an average quarterback. Head coach Jeff Brohm has a good system and I think he can improve White’s level of play by at least the same amount he improved UAB’s pass attack in his one season as offensive coordinator for the Blazers in 2012. That team when from 0.6 yppp worse than average in 2011 to 0.1 yppp worse than average under Brohm and that’s a reasonable level of improvement to expect from White. I actually peg him to improve more given the level of talent of the Hilltoppers’ receiving corps, and I expect the Western Kentucky pass attack to be just average, which is a significant 0.9 yppp improvement over White’s career efficiency. It’s tough teach accuracy and White is going to have to prove it before I believe it.

White should put up good numbers in this game because he’s facing a rice defense that traditionally has been terrible defensively. I can’t imagine the Owls will be as bad as they were last season (7.1 yards per play allowed), but they’ll still be bad and the Rice offense doesn’t figure to be very good either. My ratings favor Western Kentucky by only 15 points and I see value on the under in this game.