Game Analysis

Lean – Under (56.5) – Texas State (-16)  vs Rice

The math would favor Texas State by 17 points in this game with no adjustments for the transfer portal players that will not play in this game – which significantly affects Rice more than it does the Bobcats. However, Texas State applies to a 21-61 ATS bowl situation.

Rice will be without their starting quarterback Chase Jenkins and his backup, which leaves third-string and fourth-string freshman at that position. Number two running back Daelen Alexander also won’t play and his 5.3 ypr is better than #1 back Quinton Jackson’s 4.95 ypr. However, Rice’s offense was so bad that the adjustments are not that much for those losses. The pass defense also go worse after top CB Khary Crump was dismissed from the team after 7 games (he had 6 passes defended), as the Owls have given up 9.4 yards per pass play in 5 games without Crump. Rice is decent on run defense and Texas State prefers to run the ball (40.5 rush plays vs 29.9 pass plays per game) so the Bobcats aren’t likely to take full advantage of the horrible Rice pass defense.

Texas State doesn’t appear to be missing any players of note and after the adjustments for the players Rice is missing, I get the Bobcats by 19.3 points with 52.0 total points. I’ll lean Under but I have no opinion on the side given that math favors Texas State and the situation favors Rice.