Game Analysis

ARMY (-8 ½)  27   Rice  20

My overall ratings of these two teams would favor Army to cover in this game but my model takes into account matchups and Army’s option attack will not take full advantage of Rice’s atrocious pass defense. The Owls’ are 1.9 yards per pass play worse than average defending the pass but they’re actually about average against the run, which is why they match up favorably with an Army attack that runs the ball 84% of the time. That matchup is why my composite ratings favor Army by only 6 ½ points when my overall team ratings would favor the Cadets by 12 points. That’s about as much value as a matchup could possibly provide but I still only lean with Rice plus the points. The match up also supplies some value towards the Under.