Game Analysis
Michigan (-16.5) 37 Purdue 19
Michigan running back Blake Corum (1463 yards at 5.9 ypr) will miss this game but that wasn’t a problem against Ohio State and I think they get an upgrade at tailback with Donovan Edwards, who has run for 687 yards at 7.5 ypr this season as the second back and racked up 216 yards as the featured back last week against the Buckeyes.
Purdue is below average defensively since star safety Chris Jefferson left the team after 5 games and the Boilermakers don’t have enough firepower offensively (just 0.5 yppl better than average) to do too much damage against a Michigan defense that’s 1.4 yppl better than average.
Unbeaten teams tend to struggle against the number in conference championship games, especially in this spread range (unbeaten favorites from 10 to 21 points are 2-16 ATS) but my math favors Michigan by 20 points.
Rush
-
Run Plays
30.3
31.5
-
Run Yards
140.7
145.2
-
YPRP
4.6
4.6
Pass
-
Pass Comp
26.6
16.7
-
Pass Att
41.0
30.0
-
Comp %
64.8%
55.6%
-
Pass Yards
282.7
219.8
-
Sacks
1.7
2.3
-
Sack Yards
11.6
15.3
-
Sack %
3.9%
7.0%
-
Pass Plays
42.7
32.3
-
Net Pass Yards
271.1
204.6
-
YPPP
6.4
6.3
Total
-
Total Plays
73.0
63.8
-
Total Yards
411.8
349.8
-
YPPL
5.6
5.5
TO
-
Int
1.0
1.1
-
Int %
2.4%
3.6%
-
Fumbles
0.5
0.4
-
Turnovers
1.5
1.5
Rush
-
Run Plays
41.5
25.3
-
Run Yards
254.8
100.9
-
YPRP
6.1
4.0
Pass
-
Pass Comp
17.2
17.6
-
Pass Att
26.4
31.9
-
Comp %
65.0%
55.1%
-
Pass Yards
216.9
172.1
-
Sacks
1.1
2.6
-
Sack Yards
7.6
17.3
-
Sack %
3.9%
7.5%
-
Pass Plays
27.5
34.5
-
Net Pass Yards
209.3
154.8
-
YPPP
7.6
4.5
Total
-
Total Plays
69.0
59.8
-
Total Yards
464.1
255.8
-
YPPL
6.7
4.3
TO
-
Int
0.3
0.8
-
Int %
0.9%
2.6%
-
Fumbles
0.3
0.3
-
Turnovers
0.5
1.1
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2022 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/01/22 Penn St. |
31-35 |
+3.5
L
|
21/31 |
83/104 |
4.0/3.4 |
1/0 |
29/22 |
58/41 |
339/302 |
0/1 |
2/1 |
5.7/7.2 |
422/406 |
5.2/5.6 |
| 09/10/22 Indiana State |
56-0 |
0.0
W
|
45/32 |
235/72 |
5.2/2.3 |
1/1 |
27/9 |
30/20 |
321/92 |
0/2 |
0/4 |
10.7/3.8 |
556/164 |
7.4/2.9 |
| 09/17/22 @ Syracuse |
29-32 |
+1.5
L
|
22/34 |
61/135 |
2.8/4.0 |
0/0 |
39/13 |
55/30 |
424/180 |
1/0 |
0/1 |
7.7/5.8 |
485/315 |
6.3/4.8 |
| 09/24/22 Florida Atl. |
28-26 |
-16.5
L
|
32/43 |
204/186 |
6.4/4.3 |
1/1 |
22/18 |
31/30 |
160/230 |
1/1 |
1/0 |
5.0/7.7 |
364/416 |
5.7/5.7 |
| 10/01/22 @ Minnesota |
20-10 |
+9.5
W
|
25/24 |
163/54 |
6.5/2.3 |
1/0 |
27/18 |
40/33 |
196/247 |
2/3 |
2/2 |
4.7/7.1 |
359/301 |
5.4/5.1 |
| 10/08/22 @ Maryland |
31-29 |
+3.0
W
|
25/22 |
58/88 |
2.3/4.0 |
2/0 |
30/26 |
41/38 |
333/299 |
1/1 |
5/3 |
7.2/7.3 |
391/387 |
5.5/6.1 |
| 10/15/22 Nebraska |
43-37 |
-13.5
L
|
44/19 |
220/160 |
5.0/8.4 |
0/0 |
35/16 |
54/29 |
391/320 |
1/2 |
0/4 |
7.2/9.7 |
611/480 |
6.2/9.2 |
| 10/22/22 @ Wisconsin |
24-35 |
+1.5
L
|
30/26 |
132/198 |
4.4/7.6 |
0/1 |
31/13 |
46/21 |
299/184 |
3/0 |
3/2 |
6.1/8.0 |
431/382 |
5.5/7.8 |
| 11/05/22 Iowa |
3-24 |
-4.5
L
|
28/32 |
116/204 |
4.1/6.4 |
0/0 |
20/13 |
43/23 |
139/172 |
2/0 |
3/3 |
3.0/6.6 |
255/376 |
3.4/6.5 |
| 11/12/22 @ Illinois |
31-24 |
+6.5
W
|
32/31 |
143/128 |
4.5/4.1 |
0/0 |
25/18 |
40/32 |
237/179 |
1/1 |
0/2 |
5.9/5.3 |
380/307 |
5.3/4.7 |
| 11/19/22 Northwestern |
17-9 |
-17.5
L
|
41/43 |
150/176 |
3.7/4.1 |
0/2 |
16/9 |
25/20 |
149/64 |
0/1 |
1/2 |
5.7/2.9 |
299/240 |
4.5/3.7 |
| 11/26/22 @ Indiana |
30-16 |
-10.5
W
|
19/41 |
123/237 |
6.5/5.8 |
0/0 |
18/25 |
29/43 |
265/186 |
0/1 |
3/3 |
8.3/4.0 |
388/423 |
7.6/4.9 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2022 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/03/22 Colorado St. |
51-7 |
-30.5
W
|
39/32 |
242/121 |
6.2/3.8 |
0/1 |
18/16 |
28/20 |
198/54 |
0/1 |
1/7 |
6.8/2.0 |
440/175 |
6.5/3.0 |
| 09/10/22 Hawaii |
56-10 |
-52.0
L
|
31/31 |
285/77 |
9.2/2.5 |
0/0 |
17/12 |
22/37 |
305/60 |
1/0 |
2/1 |
12.7/1.6 |
590/137 |
10.7/2.0 |
| 09/17/22 Connecticut |
59-0 |
-47.5
W
|
40/33 |
201/122 |
5.0/3.7 |
0/1 |
21/5 |
25/20 |
292/24 |
0/0 |
2/0 |
10.8/1.2 |
493/146 |
7.4/2.8 |
| 09/24/22 Maryland |
34-27 |
-17.0
L
|
36/31 |
262/121 |
7.3/3.9 |
1/1 |
18/27 |
26/40 |
208/276 |
0/2 |
2/2 |
7.4/6.6 |
470/397 |
7.3/5.4 |
| 10/01/22 @ Iowa |
27-14 |
-10.5
W
|
40/20 |
195/66 |
4.9/3.3 |
0/0 |
18/21 |
24/31 |
145/215 |
0/0 |
1/4 |
5.8/6.1 |
340/281 |
5.2/5.1 |
| 10/08/22 @ Indiana |
31-10 |
-22.5
L
|
37/18 |
168/80 |
4.5/4.4 |
0/0 |
28/25 |
36/49 |
304/142 |
1/1 |
0/7 |
8.4/2.5 |
472/222 |
6.5/3.0 |
| 10/15/22 Penn St. |
41-17 |
-7.0
W
|
54/19 |
423/121 |
7.8/6.4 |
0/0 |
17/12 |
24/29 |
140/148 |
1/0 |
1/2 |
5.6/4.8 |
563/269 |
7.1/5.4 |
| 10/29/22 Michigan St. |
29-7 |
-22.5
L
|
52/20 |
276/68 |
5.3/3.4 |
1/0 |
15/17 |
26/30 |
167/205 |
0/1 |
0/2 |
6.4/6.4 |
443/273 |
5.7/5.3 |
| 11/05/22 @ Rutgers |
52-17 |
-26.0
W
|
50/16 |
296/31 |
5.9/1.9 |
0/0 |
13/14 |
27/29 |
140/149 |
0/3 |
1/3 |
5.0/4.7 |
436/180 |
5.6/3.8 |
| 11/12/22 Nebraska |
34-3 |
-30.5
W
|
47/24 |
275/92 |
5.9/3.8 |
0/0 |
10/10 |
20/20 |
137/66 |
0/0 |
2/2 |
6.2/3.0 |
412/158 |
6.0/3.4 |
| 11/19/22 Illinois |
19-17 |
-17.5
L
|
40/33 |
170/159 |
4.3/4.8 |
1/0 |
18/21 |
34/30 |
208/178 |
0/0 |
0/0 |
6.1/5.9 |
378/337 |
5.1/5.3 |
| 11/26/22 @ Ohio St. |
45-23 |
+8.0
W
|
32/27 |
264/153 |
8.3/5.7 |
0/0 |
13/31 |
25/48 |
268/341 |
0/2 |
1/1 |
10.3/7.0 |
532/494 |
9.2/6.5 |
Purdue
vs 
Michigan