Game Analysis

Pittsburgh (-6.5)  27   Toledo  20

Pitt would be favored by 10 or 10.5 points with everyone available for both teams and I’d have favored Pitt in this game by 13 points, as the Panthers should have been better in scoring margin based on their metrics.

The Panthers’ offense was 0.1 yards per play worse than average this season in FBS games, as they managed just 5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average attack. Star RB Desmond Reid is expected to play after missing the season finale but starting QB Eli Holstein has been downgraded to not expected to play and that leaves third-string walk-on David Lynch at the helm of the offense. NFL bound WR Konata Mumpfield has declared for the NFL draft, but he is listed on the bowl depth chart, which has been updated given that others that have transferred are not on the depth chart. It’s not uncommon for players that have declared for the NFL draft to play in the bowl game, but you can’t be sure that will be the case for Mumpfield until he announced it one way for the other or can be seen before the game suited up or not. Mumpfield averaged 9.5 yards on 79 targets against FBS opponent while the next 4 wide receivers combined for just 6.3 YPT. Mumpfield would be worth 2.7 points is he doesn’t play (which I’m assuming he won’t for now). Backup receivers Censure Lee and Daejon Reynolds are not on the depth chart so the depth at that position is an issue even if Mumpfield plays and I am docking the Panthers another 0.7 points for that. TE Gavin Bartholomew has also declared for the NFL draft, which is not a detriment if he skips this game given his 5.6 yards per target (the other two TEs combined for 7.0 YPT in FBS games). I expect more running with Reid given the inexperience at quarterback, which would slow down the pace of the Pitt offense and take some of the pressure off of Lynch.

Toledo’s defense allowed just 21.1 points and 5.0 yppl against FBS teams, although it was against a mostly weak schedule of opposing offensive units that would combine to average only 5.2 yppl against an average defense. The Rockets have a potential opt-out in All-MAC DT Darius Alexander but I’m going to assume he’ll play since he’s listed on the depth chart. I project 374 total yards at 4.8 yppl if Mumpfield is out for Pittsburgh (and Alexander plays for Toledo), adjusted for perfect dome conditions.

Toledo’s offense really struggled this season, as the Rockets managed just 5.4 yppl against FBS teams despite facing a collection of defensive units that would allow 6.2 yppl to an average attack. I’ll assume that potential opt-out WR Jerjuan Newton plays, but Toledo is going to struggle against a good Pitt defense. The Panthers’ defense was 0.8 yards per play better than average against FBS teams this season (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 6.0 yppl against an average defense) and that unit is intact for this game, as the top 18 players in tackles are all listed on the depth chart. I project just 329 yards at 4.4 yppl for Toledo in this game.

The math favors Pitt by 6.5 points with 46.5 total points, but there is a chance the Mumpfield might play for the Panthers. This game is certainly a pass, as it’s hard to know what to expect from Lynch in this game.