Game Analysis

*UNDER (61 ½) – OKLAHOMA STATE (-4 ½)  27   Pittsburgh  24

Oklahoma State has a reputation as being a high scoring offense, which has certainly been the case for most of coach Mike Gundy’s tenure. However, the Cowboys have averaged only 5.3 yards per play in games against SE Louisiana and Central Michigan while their defense has yielded only 4.8 yppl (not including the Hail Mary pass by CMU last week that shouldn’t have counted and which I consider non-predictive). The high number of points scored in their 61-7 opening week win over SE Louisiana was extremely misleading (just 401 yards at 5.6 yppl, which is about average) and last week’s game totaled just 51 total points before the Hail Mary tacked on 7 at the end of the game.

Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has averaged a modest 350 yards at 5.3 yards per play against Villanova and Penn State while allowing 291 yards per game at 4.5 yppl. I had Pittsburgh rated as a mediocre offensive team with a good defense heading into the season and I’ve seen nothing to change my mind. Perhaps last week’s 42-39 win over Penn State has shifted the perception of Pitt to a high scoring team with a bad defense, but that is simply not the case.

My ratings project only 51 points in this game and I’ll go Under 60 points or higher in a 1-Star Best Bet. The line has dropped a little since I released this game to my subscribers but it’s still a Best Bet at 60 or more and would be a Strong Opinion down to 58 points.