Game Analysis

Pinstripe Bowl

Wednesday, December 28 – 11 am Pacific

Strong Opinion Under (65 ½) – Pittsburgh (-5 ½)  34   Northwestern  26

Lean Pittsburgh (-5 ½)

Pittsburgh has gone over the total in 11 consecutive games but there are some factors that led to that over record that is likely due to variance and thus unlikely to continue. Pittsburgh does have a very good offense that averaged 6.8 yards per play (against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) but the Panthers’ defense isn’t as bad as it seems, as the 6.1 yppl they allowed came against teams that would average 6.0 yppl against an average defense. The 77.9 total average points in Pitt games was considerably higher than it should have been. The main reason is that Pitt averaged an incredibly high 6.1 points per red zone opportunity, which is much higher than the national average of 4.9 points per RZ and the 5.3 points per RZ that would be projected for a team as good offensively as the Panthers are. Pitt’s defense, meanwhile, allowed 5.6 points per RZ instead of the 5.0 points per RZ that their stats would project. That’s an overall difference of 6 points per game in red zone variance.

Today Pitt is facing a Northwestern team that generally plays in lower scoring games (47.7 average total points). The Wildcats’ offense is 0.1 yards per play worse than average, which is 0.4 yppl lower than what Pitt has faced on average this season. The Northwestern defense, meanwhile, is 0.4 yppl better than average (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average team) and 0.3 yppl better than the average rating of the defensive units that Pitt has faced this season. Northwestern actually had 2.1 points of red zone variance in the lower scoring direction (4.5 points per RZ on offense and 4.4 points per RZ on defense), so there should have been a couple more points scored in their games this season.

My math model adjusts for such variance and includes Pitt’s incredible special teams stats (KR Quadree Henderson led the nation with 3 kickoff return touchdowns) – although there is also variance in special teams that is adjusted for. My math projects just 60 points I’ll consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 65 points or higher and a lean down to 64 points.

As far as the side is concerned, the math favors Pitt by 8 points and I’ll lean with Pittsburgh at -6 ½ points or less.