Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Pittsburgh (+4.5)  24   BOSTON COLLEGE  22

Pitt has lost 4 games in a row and I’m going to assume that starting quarterback Eli Holstein is out for this game. But, I still think Pitt is a better team than BC.

Pitt’s offense and BC’s offense have both been 0.1 yards per play worse than average for the season and I rate the Panthers’ attack at -0.2 yppl without Holstein due to his running (backup QB Yarnell has the same compensated yards per pass play numbers as Holstein). I rate the Eagles’ offense at -0.2 yppl with Grayson James at quarterback, as he’s been 0.3 yppp worse in his 3 starts this season than former starter Castellanos after adjusting for opposing defenses faced.

It is the defensive side of the ball where the Panthers are superior. Pitt has allowed just 5.2 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average defense while BC has allowed 5.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average stop unit. I do rate the Eagles defense a bit better than that (0.4 yppl better than average) after adjusting for their negative outlier versus Virginia Tech (512 yards at 9.3 yppl allowed), but Pitt has a 0.4 yppl advantage on defense and is significantly better in special teams. Pitt has a likely All-American kicker that is 1.6 points per game better than BC’s kicker and the Panthers are also better in compensated net punting and kickoff yard line differentials.

Pitt is a 1-Star Best Bet at +3.5 points or more (Strong Opinion at +3).