Game Analysis

MICHIGAN (-18 ½)  39   Penn State  18

Getting rid of the “arm talent” that was Christian Hackenberg has solved Penn State’s offensive issues. It doesn’t matter how strong of an arm a quarterback has if he only completes 53.5% of his passes, as Hackenberg did last season and the idiot in the Jets’ front offense that drafted Hackenberg should be fired. New quarterback Trace McSorley is completing 64.4% of his passes and averaging an impressive 8.1 yards per pass play against a collection of decent defensive teams (Kent State, Pitt, and Temple), but the real test for the Nittany Lions’ new quarterback comes today against an elite Michigan secondary. Colorado’s Sefo Liufau has some decent success throwing against the Wolverines’ last week but the Nittany Lions don’t have the ground attack (just 4.3 yprp) to compliment McSorley.

Michigan’s offense is also improved this season, as the Wolverines have averaged a healthy 6.5 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average attack. I expect even more impressive numbers against a struggling Penn State defense that’s had trouble with injuries early in his campaign. The Lions have allowed only 5.2 yards per play but that’s actually not good when considering that two of the teams they faced are horrible offensively (Kent State and Temple). I think the number is about right but Michigan does apply to a decent 84-42-2 ATS home favorite momentum situation and I’ll lean with the Wolverines based on that.