Game Analysis

Note: Penn State was designated as a Lean at +3 but more news on the availability of Penn State’s players has come out. Four of the five starting offensive linemen are now out for Penn State (instead of just one previously confirmed). I still see some value on Penn State though although I wouldn’t have made it a lean with the updated information.

Penn State (+3)  24   Clemson  25

Both teams are dealing with significant attrition due to injury and opt outs but the Penn State was better than Clemson in the regular season and there have been more confirmed players out for Clemson (coach Dabo Swinney says 27 players will miss this game) than for Penn State (although more opt outs could be announced) and the math leans a bit with the Lions given the current list of confirmed players not playing.

Penn State’s offense thrived late in the year with more of a focus on the run game and efficient passing from Ethan Grunkemeyer, who was better than Drew Allar (no surprise to me). Penn State’s run-oriented offense was 0.6 yards per play better than average in the final 6 games after Allar’s season-ending injury. Second leading rusher, Nicholas Singleton, has opted out of this game but Singleton had a bad season (just 4.5 ypr) and his absence would result in a few more carries for Kaytron Allen (6.2 ypr), who ran for an average of 189 yards in the last 3 games. Allen is going to suite up according the interim head coach but he may not play much given that four of the five starting offensive linemen are now confirmed as not going to play.

Clemson’s defense was well below normal standards this season, as the Tigers were just 0.4 yards per play better than an average FBS stop unit (0.3 yprp better than average and 0.6 yppp better than average). Clemson was extremely good on 3rd-downs (just 29.2% conversions allowed), which helped keep opponent’s scoring down (just 21.4 ppg allowed to FBS teams), but the Tigers will be without a lot of defensive players in this game.

Clemson will be without 7 key contributors on defense, including 6 starters. The Tigers will be without 4 of their top 8 defensive linemen (starters Woods, Capehart, and Parker along with #3 DE Lawson), starting linebacker Woodaz, safety/rover Barnes, and CB Terrell, who defended 11 passes. My algorithm values those players at 4.9 points.

Clemson’s offense was nothing special this season, as the Tigers couldn’t run the ball (4.5 yprp against FBS teams that would allow 5.0 yprp to an average team) and rated as just 0.4 yards per play better than average with Cade Klubnik in the game (Klubnik was 1.0 yppp better than average). WR Antonio Williams has opted out and the Tigers’ most effective WR Bryant Wesco Jr. was injured early in week 8. Those two combined for 1084 yards at 9.5 yards per target in FBS games (7.8 YPT for Williams and 12.2 YPT for Wesco) and the other wide receivers combined for 8.2 YPT. Klubnik performed well down the stretch after losing Wesco but I’m still going to dock the Tigers 0.24 yppp (about 0.9 points) for now being down two of their top 3 receivers, as the 3 receivers that are going to get more targets with Williams out combined for just 6.4 yards per target. Clemson is also down 3 offensive linemen, as starting LG Sadler was injured in the finale and will not play, RG Parks was hurt in week 12 and is still out, and reserve G Jacobs (4 starts) is also out with injury.

Penn State’s defense got worse starting in week 6 after LB Tony Rojas was lost for the season, as the run defense allowed 5.7 yards per rushing play in 8 games without Rojas (to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yprp against an average team). The pass defense was mostly good (0.7 yppp better than average for the season) with a couple of really bad games (13.3 yppp allowed to Ohio State and Rutgers) but the secondary will be without 3 of their top 5 players. S Zakee Wheatley and cornerbacks Elliott Washington (nickelback) and AJ Harris will not play, and DL Zan Durante is also not with the team. There could be more defections, but those 4 players are worth a combined 3.0 points.

If Penn State doesn’t have any more opt outs, then the math would favor the Nittany Lions by 3.5 points (with 52.5 total points) and Clemson applies to a negative 10-42-2 ATS bowl situation that is based on their late season win streak. The problem with making Penn State a play is that the majority of seniors and NFL prospects are rumored to be on limited snap counts to prevent injury – although coach Smith has also stated that he wants to win this game. Most concerning about that is RB Kaytron Allen, who ran for 1303 yards at 6.2 ypr and has averaged 23.3 carries the last 6 games. No Allen at all would be worth 3.5 points, if the untested backup running backs just meet the production of Singleton. If Allen is limited to just 10 carries then that still could be a couple of points and Smith intends to play young receivers more as well.