Game Analysis

Oregon (-1 ½)  37   WASHINGTON STATE  31

Losing at Nebraska by 3 points and losing by 3 points to an underrated Colorado team is nothing for Oregon to be ashamed of, and it certainly doesn’t indicate that the Ducks aren’t still a good team. Oregon should bounce back this week with a revenge win against a pass-heavy Washington State team that is a good matchup for the Ducks. Oregon’s defensive weakness is defending the run (5.7 yards per rushing play allowed) while the secondary is their strength, as the Ducks have yielded just 5.5 yards per pass play to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.7 yppp against an average team. Washington State was held to 28 points and 5.7 yards per play by Boise State, the only good pass defense that Luke Falk and company have faced this season and my model is projecting 5.7 yppl for the Cougars in this game.

Oregon’s offense should be able to run and pass the ball well in this game. The Ducks’ rushing offense (285 yards at 6.8 yards per rushing play) is better than a good Washington State run defense (4.3 yprp allowed to teams that would average 5.0 yprp against an average team) and Oregon quarterback Dakota Prukop (8.1 yppp against teams that would allow 6.9 yppp) should pick apart a Washington State defense that has allowed 8.3 yppp to a collection of quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.6 yppp against an average D. The Cougars gave up 474 yards at 11.0 yppp in a home loss to Eastern Washington and allowed 299 pass yards at 8.5 yppp to Boise State. Prukop should have a big game.

Overall the math gives Oregon a 56.2% chance of covering but I’ll pass on this game because the Ducks apply to a negative 114-197-12 ATS situation. The math model is more significant than the situation and I like the Ducks and the Under, which shows pretty good value because of the matchup.