Oregon
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Game Analysis
USC (-3) 35 Oregon 32
The difference between Oregon’s 3-2 record and USC’s 5-0 record is two-fold. First, USC was lucky to beat Arizona State and Arizona to start their season and also won a close game last week against UCLA. Oregon, meanwhile, has lost 2 games by 4 points or less. The second thing that differentiates these teams is the randomness of USC being +7 in turnover margin while the Ducks are an unlucky -7 in turnovers.
These teams are about even otherwise, with Oregon being better offensively (7.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) than USC (5.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl) and the Trojans being better defensively (5.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 6.4 yppl against an average defense) than the Ducks (5.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average defense, adjusted for facing UCLA’s backup QB). USC has an edge in projected plays (Oregon’s big plays lead to fewer plays) and the Trojans have better special teams and are projected to be +0.3 in turnovers.
Overall, the math favors USC by 3.2 points with a total of 67.4 points with perfectly still conditions expected on Friday night.
- Team Stats
- Game Log
- Oregon
- USC
Rush
- Run Plays 33.4 37.4
- Run Yards 189.8 187.4
- YPRP 6.0 5.2
Pass
- Pass Comp 18.2 20.6
- Pass Att 28.8 33.2
- Comp % 63.2% 62.0%
- Pass Yards 275.6 235.6
- Sacks 1.8 1.6
- Sack Yards 9.0 8.2
- Sack % 5.9% 4.6%
- Pass Plays 30.6 34.8
- Net Pass Yards 266.6 227.4
- YPPP 8.7 6.5
Total
- Total Plays 64.0 72.2
- Total Yards 465.4 423.0
- YPPL 7.3 5.9
TO
- Int 0.8 0.4
- Int % 2.8% 1.2%
- Fumbles 1.4 0.4
- Turnovers 2.2 0.8
- Points 34.2 28.0