Game Analysis

Lean – Oregon State (+6)  21   Notre Dame  23

Oregon State is without starting quarterback DJ Ulagaleilei, top running back Damien Martinez (1185 yards at 6.1 ypr), their top wide receiver Anthony Gould (9.2 yards per target), their TE Jack Velling (438 yards at 8.8 YPT) and 3 starting offensive linemen. On defense, the Beavers are without what amounts to 3.5 starters – leading tackler LB Mascarenas-Arnold, S Akili Arnold, LB Calvin Hart Jr., and CB Jermod McCoy, who started 5 games, but had a team-leading 9 passes defended. Their excellent place-kicker (made 13 of 14 FGs) is also gone.

Ben Gulbranson, who started 8 games last season, will be the quarterback and he was 0.5 yards per pass play better than average in 2022, which is 1.5 yppp worse than Ulagaleilei. He should be worse than that without their best WR and starting TE. The running back taking most of the load with Martinez out is Deshaun Fenwick, who ran for 500 yards at 5.6 ypr this season. The Oregon State offense was 1.5 yppl better than average this season (6.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) and I have that unit rated at just 0.1 yppl better than average heading into this game. The Beavers’ defense was 0.9 yppl better than average this season and I rate that unit at 0.4 yppl better than average for this game.

Notre Dame will be without star QB Sam Hartman, their top 3 wide receivers, their top 2 tight ends, and 4 starting offensive linemen who combined for 44 of the 60 OL starts this season. WR Chris Tyree is the big loss at receiver, as he averaged 13.1 yards on his 37 targets while Flores and Merriweather combined to average 8.6 YPT on 79 targets. The 3 starting wide receivers for this game, combined for 710 yards at 9.7 yards per target, so the receiving corps is still good. The issue is not having Hartman, who elevated the pass attack from a compensated yards per pass play range from +0.8 yppp to +1.1 yppp from 2018 through 2022 to +2.1 yppp this season. The best guess for first time starter Steve Angeli is in that pre-Hartman range but with a negative adjustment for the receivers and offensive linemen that won’t be playing (I come up with a -0.1 yppp rating for this game). Top running back Audric Estime (1225 yards at 6.2 ypr against FBS opponents) will be replaced but backups Love, Price and Payne, who combined for 578 yards at 5.0 ypr against FBS teams – although Love and Price are listed as co-starters and combined for 5.9 ypr (Payne, at 3.5 ypr, is listed as a backup but should get a handful of carries). I have the Irish offense also rated at +0.1 yppl better than average after all of the adjustments.

On defense the Irish will be without 3 starters (LB Liufua, CBs Hart and Harper) and reserve edge rusher Nana Osafo-Mensah. Those losses are not all that bad, as those 4 players combined for just 8 sacks, 11.5 other tackles for loss and only 8 passes defended. Notre Dame’s best defensive players are all on the depth chart and expected to play. There is still an adjustment to be made but I rate Notre Dame’s defense at 1.0 yppl better than average for this game.

There is obviously a lot of variance involved in a prediction of a game with so many players out, but I come up with Notre Dame by 4.8 points with a total of 44.0 points, which includes a positive adjustment for what is expected to be a very calm afternoon in El Paso.. Oregon State does apply to a 75-14-1 ATS bowl situation that won this bowl season with Duke, another team with a lot of changes in the roster. I’ll lean with Oregon State plus the points based on the situation, which has a 54.2% chance of working based on the historical performance of trends with a similar statistical significance.