Game Analysis

MINNESOTA (-12 ½)  33   Oregon State  21

Oregon State should be much better in coach Gary Anderson’s second season. The Beavers’ offense now has an experienced and proven quarterback in Utah State transfer Darell Garretson, who averaged 6.8 yards per pass play in two seasons with the Aggies, including 7.5 yppp on 145 pass plays before getting injured in 2014. The Beavers’ top two receivers return and former quarterback Seth Collins, who led the team in rushing last year, could thrive at the receiver position. Oregon State was only 0.2 yards per play worse than average last season and I project them a bit better than average this season with potential to be even better.

The Beavers’ defense was 0.5 yppl worse than average last year but they were very inexperienced (just 2 returning starters) and that unit should improve some this year. Oregon State is still not good by Pac 12 standards but they’ll certainly be more competitive after going winless in conference play last season.

Minnesota was a decent team last season, rating as average offensively and 0.7 yppl better than average defensively (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team). Minnesota probably won’t be quite as good defensively this season (I rate that unit at 0.5 yppl better than average) but the Gophers’ offense, which was a bit worse than average last season, should be improved this season. Quarterback Mitch Leidner has turned himself into a better than average passer and the rushing attack should be vastly improved with sophomore Shannon Brooks carrying a bigger load after starting just 5 games last season and totaling 709 rushing yards at an impressive 6.0 ypr for the season.

I don’t really see much value here, as these teams look like they’re priced pretty fairly. My ratings favor Minnesota by 11.5 points, which is not enough of a difference to be considered significant.