Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – COLORADO STATE (-4)  35   Oregon State  26

Colorado State was an offensive juggernaut at the end of last season after Nick Stevens reclaimed the starting quarterback spot in week 7. In those final seven games the Rams averaged 44.3 points on 512 yards per game at a ridiculous 7.8 yards per play (against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average attack). The CSU defense wasn’t good during that stretch (6.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team) but overall the Rams were 8 points better than an average team from the line of scrimmage over that stretch.

Stevens returns for his senior season, as do the top four running backs and top two receivers, who combined for 1885 yards at 18.1 yards per catch last season. Despite all that returning talent it’s just not likely that the Rams will be as potent as they were the second half of last season, in which Stevens averaged 15.6 yards per completion and was sacked just twice on 174 pass plays. Quarterbacks with extremely high per completion averages tend to regress some the following season and the offensive line isn’t likely to protect quite as well as last year’s experienced unit did. Stevens put up good numbers as a sophomore in 2015 as well but he’ll likely be closer to the 13.5 yards per completion average over the last two years. However, that would still give Colorado State one of the best passing attacks in the nation, even after compensating for competition faced. The Rams should also be able to run the ball very well again with all their running backs returning and their three new offensive lineman averaging a hefty 321 pounds.

Stevens may be just as good but I’ll call for regression to the mean in the YPC average and overall I rate the Rams’ attack at 0.8 yards per play better than average, which is just as good as it was overall last season (but far short of the +1.8 yppl over Stevens’ final 7 starts). CSU is likely to be improved defensively with 8 starters returning (just 4 last season) and I project that unit at 0.3 yppl worse than average after being 0.6 yppl worse than average in 2016.

I’m not as high on Oregon State as most prognosticators are, as my enthusiasm for the Beavers vanished when quarterback Marcus McMaryion packed his bags for Fresno. McMaryion must have realized that coach Gary Anderson had been seduced by the big arm of JC transfer Jake Luton and that he wasn’t going to keep the job that he earned by playing so well over the second half of last season. McMaryion played well off the bench in week 7 against Utah and performed very well in 6 starts to end the season. McMaryion averaged 6.9 yards per pass play in those starts despite facing teams that would combine to allow just 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback. Those numbers were night and day better than the unsightly stats posted by opening day starter Darell Garretson and backup Conor Blount in the first 6 games of the season. Those two combined for just 51.4% completions and a putrid 3.6 yppp (against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp) with the Beavers’ most productive passing performance with Garretson starting being just 5.2 yppp, which was against a horrible Idaho State team that would allow 9.1 yppp to an average FBS team.

Oregon State has a great running back in Ryan Nall (951 yards at 6.5 ypr last season) and the Beavers went from horrible offensively to better than average with McMaryion starting. One of the reasons for fading Oregon State is quarterback Jake Luton, who has not proven that he can throw the ball accurately enough to lead a decent aerial attack. Luton began his career as Idaho’s backup quarterback two years ago and averaged just 4.3 yards on 83 pass plays against teams that would combine to allow 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback. Luton then went to a junior college and faced inferior defensive players and still only completed 56.5% of his passes while throwing 15 interceptions (he also threw 4 picks in just 78 pass attempts at Idaho). There’s no denying that Luton has a strong arm, but he also has an inaccurate arm and accuracy is not something that is easily taught. I’ll give Luton the benefit of the doubt and assume he’s much better than he’s shown and I’ll call for the Beavers’ pass attack to be 0.5 yards per pass play better than their team rating last year, which is much better than Garretson was but not as good as McMaryion was. However, even a 0.5 yppp increase over last year’s team rating is still 0.3 yppp worse than average FBS team.

Nall will lead a better than average rushing attack but the Beavers won’t have the running of speedy receiver Victor Bolden, who averaged 11.8 yards on his 28 runs. Still, Oregon State rates as only an average offensive unit even if Luton is significantly improved and that’s not very good for a Pac-12 team.

Oregon State returns 8 starters to their defense, which is a good number, but I don’t think they’ll be improved on that side of the ball. The Beavers’ defense was only average on a national scale in 2016 (5.9 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average defensive team) and my algorithm forecasts similar overall numbers this season. The run defense will be much better but it’s unlikely that the Beavers will allow just 11.2 yards per catch, which is something that tends to regress towards the mean (12.5 ypc last season was the national average).

My ratings favor Colorado State by 9 points, which is not enough at this point in the season to make this game a Best Bet, but is enough for me to consider the Rams as a Strong Opinion at -4 points or less.