Game Analysis

Indiana (-3.5)  27   Oregon  24

The straight math in this game favors Oregon by 0.4 points with 54.0 total points (adjusted for playing in a covered stadium), but as I’ve mentioned before, the Ducks’ offense is relatively worse against better defensive teams. Oregon has averaged just 19.7 offensive points (in regulation) in 6 games against Power 4 conference teams with good defenses (Penn State before losing their top LB Tony Rojas, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa, Washington, and Texas Tech). If I only use Oregon’s games against good defensive teams then I get Indiana by 4.7 points.

In all games this season the Ducks have been 1.8 yards per play better than average offensively (with starters in the game), averaging 7.2 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team. However, the Ducks dominated bad defensive teams and have been just 1.3 yppl better than average offensively in 7 games against good defensive teams (I included the 10.4 yppl they gained against a good James Madison defense). If that James Madison game is excluded, then Oregon has been just 0.8 yppl better than average offensively in 6 games against good Power 4 defenses. Last week the Ducks couldn’t run against Texas Tech (just 2.5 yprp) and Dante Moore averaged just 6.1 yards per pass play, so I still don’t trust the Oregon offense to be explosive against a good defense. I should note that Oregon only averaged 4.2 yards per play at home against Indiana in their week 7 meeting, which the Hoosiers won 30-20 despite Oregon scoring a defensive touchdown.

Excluding the games against bad defensive teams Oklahoma State, Oregon State and Rutgers – and adjusting for being without WR Moore for 4 games, WR Bryant for 3 games and TE Sadiq for 1 game (all 3 missed the Iowa game) – I have Oregon’s offense 1.5 yards per play better than average, but it could be worse given how they’ve performed against the best defensive teams that they’ve faced. I should note that I am not adjusting for Oregon’s #2 rusher Jordan Davison being out. Davison will likely be missed on short yardage situations (he has 15 rushing TDs) but his 5.9 ypr is less than the other two main ball-carriers.

Indiana’s defense has been 1.4 yppl better than average this season and they’ve held Ohio State and Alabama to just 13 total points in their last two games. The Hoosiers didn’t seem to miss star defensive linemen Stephen Daley (19 total tackles for loss), as they had perhaps their best performance of the season in limiting Alabama to 3 points on less than 200 yards (and were dominating before Bama QB Simpson was injured). I’m still making an adjustment, but it’s not as much of an adjustment as I made the previous game. I project 359 yards at 6.1 yppl for Oregon in this game but it would be lower than that if I only used the Ducks’ 6 games against good Power 4 defenses (then I’d get 326 yards at 5.5 yppl, which includes the dome boost).

Indiana’s offense has been 1.7 yards per play better than average but would rate higher than that if they didn’t run the ball so much late in games with big leads. Oregon has one of the best defensive units in the nation (4.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average team) and they just shut out a good Texas Tech offense. Indiana has faced 4 very good defensive teams (Iowa, Oregon, Ohio State and Alabama) and the Hoosiers’ offense has been relatively better in those games, averaging 6.1 yppl against teams that would combine to allow just 4.1 yppl to an average offense. However, Oregon’s defense has been relatively better against the 4 best offensive teams that they’ve faced (Indiana, USC, Washington, and Texas Tech) and they limited the Hoosiers to just 5.4 yppl at home in the earlier meeting.

That game was before Indiana started utilizing WR Charlie Becker, who didn’t play much early in the season but ended up being third on the team in receiving yards (566 yards) while averaging a ridiculous 14.9 yards per target (with a 74% success rate). Becker started getting more looks when Elijah Surratt was injured but he’s still been the most targeted player on team in the 3 games since Surratt returned to the lineup (15 targets for Becker, 13 targets for Surratt and 9 targets for Cooper Jr.).

Becker’s emergence has lifted the Indiana offense to another level and relegated less efficient receivers Williams, Brady, and Bond to spot duty. Those 3 receivers have combined for a modest 7.7 yards per target against FBS opponents (on 68 targets) while Becker, Surratt and Cooper Jr. have combined for 10.3 YPT. In other words, there are now 3 dangerous receivers for opponents to worry about instead of just two and Fernando Mendoza has averaged 8.3 yards per pass play in those last 3 games despite facing teams that would combine to allow just 4.9 yppp to an average quarterback. Mendoza has averaged 8.5 yppp in the previous two games against very good defensive teams Ohio State and Alabama and he should perform better this time against the Ducks (6.4 yppp in the game in Eugene) with a 3-headed monster at the wide receiver position. I project 380 yards at 6.1 yppl for Indiana in this game.

Using all games weighed equally would result in a math model prediction of Oregon by 0.4 points with 54.0 total points. However, If I only use Oregon’s offensive performances against the 6 good Power 4 defenses that they faced, then I’d get Indiana by 4.7 points and 49.5 total points. I think Hoosiers by 3 and 51 total points is reasonable, but I can make a case for both teams.