Game Analysis

Note: The line on this game has moved a couple of points since it was released to subscribers on Monday morning but ODU is still a 1-Star Best Bet at -17.

2-Star Best Bet – **Old Dominion (-15)  41   UL MONROE  17

Old Dominion has slumped a bit in recent weeks with two losses in their last three games, all of which were point spread losses. Those recent performances has given us plenty of line value against a banged-up UL Monroe team that might be without their starting quarterback again this week (although I’ll assume he plays). The Warhawks have lost their last 4 games (0-4 ATS) by an average margin of 25.3 points to teams that I have rated worse than Old Dominion.

ODU’s offense is still playing well, as the Monarchs have averaged 474 yards per game at 7.5 yards per play against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 6.1 yppl to an average team. I don’t have that offense rated as highly as those numbers suggest (+1.4 yppl), as the Monarchs have had more than their share of big plays that have skewed their yards per play average. However, I still rate Old Dominion’s offense at 0.9 yppl better than average and they’ll move the ball consistently well against a Warhawks’ defense that’s been 1.1 yppl worse than average this season (6.1 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl).

ULM has faced only one other good offense and gave up over 600 yards and 73 points to Alabama in that game. The only other decent offensive teams ULM faced were Northwestern and Southern Miss, both of which are below average, and those teams scored 42 points and 49 points against the Warhawks’ generous defense. ODU should top 40 points in this game.

The ULM offense has been 0.5 yppl worse than average and that unit was -0.7 yppl last week without injured quarterback Aidan Armenta, whose status is questionable for this week (I’ll assume he’ll play). ODU has a solid defense that’s been 0.5 yppl better than average with their starters in the game (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average team) and held Indiana’s potent attack to just 5.6 yppl and 27 points. I’m not sure what happened in that James Madison game two weeks ago (63 points on over 600 yards at 7.8 yppl) but the defense played well last week (4.9 yppl allowed to a decent Appalachian State offense) and should dominate ULM’s impotent attack. The Warhawks have averaged just 17.3 points per game this season against a schedule of teams that is collectively 0.6 yppl worse than Old Dominion’s defense, so it’s likely that they are held to 17 points or fewer in this game.

I expect ULM to get beaten by a big margin for a 5th consecutive week and ODU should be focused after struggling in recent weeks.

Old Dominion is a 2-Star Best Bet at -16.5 points or less, a 1-Star Best Bet at -17, and a Strong Opinion at -17.5 points.