Game Analysis

NC STATE (-23 ½)  44  Old Dominion  16

NC State’s loss last week to an underrated East Carolina team does two things – it gives us some value on the Wolfpack and it assures that they’ll be more focused for this game than they might otherwise have been. NC State applies to a 43-16 ATS bounce-back situation that plays on favorites of more than 21 points coming off an upset loss and Old Dominion applies to a 25-64 ATS early season non-conference road underdog situation. The Monarchs are 0-7 ATS as an underdog of more than 17 points while NC State is 6-2 ATS laying more than 17 points. That includes a 48-14 win as a 20 point favorite in week 1 over a William & Mary squad that is better than Old Dominion.

Old Dominion has a good running back in Ray Lawry but quarterback David Washington – a former wide receiver – is too inconsistent to offer support for Lawry against better than average defensive teams. Washington averaged only 4.1 yards per pass play last week in a 7-31 loss to Appalachian State and I project just 4.6 yppp and only 4.7 yards per play for the Monarchs against a good NC State defense that shutdown a comparable William & Mary offense (3.7 ypp) and were better last week than the 33 points allowed to ECU would suggest (just 5.8 yards per play allowed to a good ECU attack).

The NC State offense is playing well under new offensive coordinator Eli Drinkwitz and his week 1 starting quarterback at Boise State last season, Ryan Finley, has been very efficient so far (71% completions with 0 interceptions). Running back Matt Dayes (241  yards at 6.5 ypr) will be tough for the outmanned ODU defense to stop and my ratings project 542 yards at 6.8 yards per play for the Wolfpack in this game.

Overall my ratings favor NC State by 26 ½ points and they’re in a favorable situation with a history of blowing out bad teams under coach Dave Doeren – including a 24 point win at Old Dominion last season. I like the Wolfpack minus the points in this one.