Game Analysis
Strong Opinion – (394) Mid Tenn St Team Total Under (27 -115) at 26 or higher
Alternate play is Strong Opinion on Old Dominion (+3.5) at +3.5 or more.
Old Dominion (+3.5) 24 MID TENNESSEE ST 21
I’ve been on Old Dominion a few times since they changed quarterbacks but I thought the better play this time was on their opponent’s team total under.
Old Dominion’s defense has been solid all season, as they’ve held opponents to just 5.6 yards per play while facing a schedule of teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average defensive team. The defense was underrated heading into the season and remained underrated after giving up 87 points in their first two games to good offensive teams Wake Forest and Liberty. However, ODU held those teams to just 5.8 yppl (0.6 yppl better than an average team would) and were hurt by their horrible offense putting the defense in bad field position. The offense has improved significantly with Hayden Wolff at quarterback (62% completions compared to Mack’s 52% completions in 6 starts.
In addition to Old Dominion’s defense being underrated it appears as if the Middle Tennessee State offense is overrated after scoring 50 points last week against FIU. However, the Blue Raiders’ backup quarterback averaged just 5.6 yards per pass play against a horrible FIU pass defense that would allow 7.7 yppp on the road to an average FBS quarterback. MTSU gained a modest 425 yards at 6.0 yppl, which is 0.9 yppl less than average attack would gain at home against FIU.
In two games without quarterback Chase Cunningham the Blue Raiders have averaged just 5.1 yppl against teams that would allow 6.2 yppl to an average team and I project just 273 yards at 4.3 yppl against a better than average Old Dominion stop unit.
The Middle Tennessee Team Total Under 26 or higher is a Strong Opinion.
- Old Dominion
- Middle Tenn St
Rush
-
Run Plays
36.9
32.0
-
Run Yards
179.5
133.7
-
YPRP
4.9
4.2
Pass
-
Pass Comp
19.6
21.2
-
Pass Att
34.8
33.4
-
Comp %
56.2%
63.5%
-
Pass Yards
199.0
258.6
-
Sacks
3.0
1.9
-
Sack Yards
19.6
11.7
-
Sack %
7.9%
5.3%
-
Pass Plays
37.8
35.3
-
Net Pass Yards
179.4
246.9
-
YPPP
4.7
7.0
Total
-
Total Plays
74.7
67.3
-
Total Yards
358.9
380.6
-
YPPL
4.8
5.7
TO
-
Int
1.2
0.4
-
Int %
3.5%
1.3%
-
Fumbles
0.9
0.7
-
Turnovers
2.1
1.1
Rush
-
Run Plays
32.1
33.0
-
Run Yards
147.4
158.0
-
YPRP
4.6
4.8
Pass
-
Pass Comp
20.7
22.2
-
Pass Att
33.2
37.8
-
Comp %
62.3%
58.7%
-
Pass Yards
216.7
230.4
-
Sacks
2.2
2.7
-
Sack Yards
14.5
18.2
-
Sack %
6.2%
6.7%
-
Pass Plays
35.4
40.5
-
Net Pass Yards
202.2
212.2
-
YPPP
5.7
5.2
Total
-
Total Plays
67.5
73.5
-
Total Yards
349.6
370.2
-
YPPL
5.2
5.0
TO
-
Int
1.1
1.5
-
Int %
3.3%
4.0%
-
Fumbles
0.7
1.4
-
Turnovers
1.8
2.9
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/03/21 @ Wake Forest |
10-42 |
+31.5
L
|
37/38 |
148/185 |
4.0/4.9 |
0/1 |
15/19 |
38/29 |
85/189 |
2/0 |
2/2 |
2.1/6.1 |
233/374 |
3.0/5.4 |
| 09/11/21 Hampton |
47-7 |
0.0
W
|
52/37 |
363/127 |
7.0/3.4 |
0/0 |
15/7 |
29/16 |
214/60 |
0/0 |
0/3 |
7.4/3.2 |
577/187 |
7.1/3.3 |
| 09/18/21 @ Liberty |
17-45 |
+27.0
L
|
30/38 |
100/209 |
3.3/5.5 |
0/1 |
15/21 |
27/28 |
108/215 |
1/0 |
5/3 |
3.4/6.9 |
208/424 |
3.4/6.1 |
| 09/25/21 Buffalo |
34-35 |
+13.0
W
|
41/36 |
245/108 |
6.0/3.0 |
2/1 |
24/17 |
41/26 |
191/191 |
1/0 |
4/0 |
4.2/7.3 |
436/299 |
5.1/4.8 |
| 10/02/21 @ UTEP |
21-28 |
+5.5
L
|
30/42 |
111/151 |
3.7/3.6 |
1/0 |
20/10 |
34/20 |
171/181 |
1/0 |
3/1 |
4.6/8.6 |
282/332 |
4.2/5.3 |
| 10/09/21 @ Marshall |
13-20 |
+21.0
W
|
45/29 |
222/107 |
4.9/3.7 |
0/0 |
10/30 |
23/46 |
83/283 |
2/2 |
4/3 |
3.1/5.8 |
305/390 |
4.2/5.0 |
| 10/16/21 Western Kentucky |
20-43 |
+12.5
L
|
32/26 |
157/135 |
4.9/5.2 |
1/0 |
26/37 |
41/54 |
289/397 |
2/1 |
5/0 |
6.3/7.4 |
446/532 |
5.7/6.7 |
| 10/30/21 Louisiana Tech |
23-20 |
+4.5
W
|
39/20 |
168/48 |
4.3/2.4 |
1/0 |
23/26 |
34/43 |
143/283 |
1/0 |
1/1 |
4.1/6.4 |
311/331 |
4.2/5.2 |
| 11/06/21 @ FIU |
47-24 |
-3.0
W
|
40/27 |
289/133 |
7.2/4.9 |
1/1 |
22/19 |
42/34 |
277/302 |
1/1 |
1/5 |
6.4/7.7 |
566/435 |
6.8/6.6 |
| 11/13/21 Florida Atl. |
30-16 |
+7.0
W
|
38/32 |
175/127 |
4.6/4.0 |
2/2 |
21/12 |
33/21 |
268/181 |
0/0 |
2/2 |
7.7/7.9 |
443/308 |
6.1/5.6 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/04/21 Monmouth |
50-15 |
0.0
W
|
30/35 |
126/137 |
4.2/3.9 |
0/3 |
20/27 |
26/42 |
231/158 |
0/1 |
2/3 |
8.3/3.5 |
357/295 |
6.2/3.7 |
| 09/11/21 @ Virginia Tech |
14-35 |
+20.0
L
|
33/38 |
96/237 |
2.9/6.2 |
0/0 |
24/17 |
40/28 |
238/150 |
1/0 |
3/1 |
5.5/5.2 |
334/387 |
4.4/5.8 |
| 09/18/21 @ UTSA |
13-27 |
+13.0
L
|
20/41 |
62/182 |
3.1/4.4 |
1/1 |
11/27 |
30/45 |
56/290 |
1/2 |
5/2 |
1.6/6.2 |
118/472 |
2.1/5.4 |
| 09/24/21 @ Charlotte |
39-42 |
+3.0
T
|
22/37 |
124/230 |
5.6/6.2 |
0/1 |
28/25 |
40/36 |
378/336 |
0/0 |
1/0 |
9.2/9.3 |
502/566 |
8.0/7.8 |
| 10/02/21 Marshall |
34-28 |
+10.5
W
|
44/32 |
241/182 |
5.5/5.7 |
1/4 |
12/31 |
21/47 |
87/301 |
1/2 |
3/3 |
3.6/6.0 |
328/483 |
4.8/5.9 |
| 10/09/21 @ Liberty |
13-41 |
+19.5
L
|
18/39 |
54/243 |
3.0/6.2 |
1/0 |
22/17 |
42/30 |
211/206 |
1/3 |
3/3 |
4.7/6.2 |
265/449 |
4.2/6.2 |
| 10/22/21 @ Connecticut |
44-13 |
-15.5
W
|
43/26 |
191/78 |
4.4/3.0 |
0/1 |
28/21 |
40/37 |
314/234 |
0/2 |
1/2 |
7.7/6.0 |
505/312 |
6.0/4.8 |
| 10/30/21 Southern Miss |
35-10 |
-13.5
W
|
33/33 |
170/112 |
5.2/3.4 |
3/2 |
14/18 |
21/41 |
133/136 |
1/3 |
2/7 |
5.8/2.8 |
303/248 |
5.4/3.1 |
| 11/06/21 @ Western Kentucky |
21-48 |
+16.0
L
|
34/22 |
137/91 |
4.0/4.1 |
1/0 |
27/29 |
46/50 |
222/267 |
6/0 |
1/1 |
4.7/5.2 |
359/358 |
4.4/4.9 |
| 11/13/21 FIU |
50-10 |
-10.0
W
|
44/27 |
273/88 |
6.2/3.3 |
0/2 |
21/10 |
26/22 |
152/44 |
0/2 |
1/5 |
5.6/1.6 |
425/132 |
6.0/2.4 |
Old Dominion
@ 
Middle Tenn St