Game Analysis

**Oklahoma (-10)  46   Texas  27

Oklahoma has not started the season as well as they had hoped but there is no shame in losing to Houston and Ohio State. The Sooners picked themselves up after their second loss and beat a good Horned Frogs team last week and they’ll be ready for Texas, who appears to be overrated after starting the season a bit underrated.

The Longhorns’ overtime win over Notre Dame isn’t particularly impressive given how much the Irish have struggled, and reality has set in with consecutive losses at Cal and at Oklahoma State in which Texas allowed an average of 49.5 points. The Longhorns’ defense, which has allowed an average of 8.9 yards per pass play to Notre Dame, Cal and Oklahoma State is going to get torched by an even better Oklahoma aerial attack that has averaged 8.0 yards per pass play (with Baker Mayfield in the game) against teams that would allow just 5.4 yppp to an average quarterback. The Texas run defense, which is only 0.2 yards per rushing play better than average, is also likely to get abused by an elite Oklahoma ground attack that has averaged 6.4 yprp this season despite facing teams that would allow just 4.7 yprp to an average team. The Sooners have averaged 39.5 points per game against teams that are collectively 0.6 yppl better than the Texas defense and my math model projects 46 points for OU in this game.

Oklahoma’s defense has allowed an average of 45.5 points in their last two games to Ohio State and TCU but the Buckeyes and Horned Frogs both possess elite offenses that rate at 1.3 yards per play and 1.2 yppl better than average. The Texas offense has been only 0.2 yppl better than average, as their 6.3 yppl have come against 4 bad defensive teams that would combine to allow 6.1 yppl to an average attack. Oklahoma’s defense hasn’t looked that good on the scoreboard (35.3 points per game allowed) but the Sooners have been 0.3 yppl better than average (5.9 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppl) after taking out the 201 yards on 30 plays that UL Monroe racked up against the backups.

Texas quarterback Shane Buechele should have decent success throwing the ball (6.6 yppp projected) but Oklahoma’s run defense (4.4 yprp allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yprp) is much better than the Texas rushing attack (5.5 yprp against teams that would allow 5.2 yprp) that will be without #2 rusher Chris Warren III for the foreseeable future – although more carries for D’Onta Foreman is not a bad thing. The model projects 435 yards at just 5.3 yppl and 27 points for Texas.

Both of these teams are 2-2 but Oklahoma is much better than their record while Texas is not. I expect the Sooners to get their revenge for last year’s upset loss and I’ll take Oklahoma in a 2-Star Best Bet at -11 points or less and for 1-Star up to -13.5 points.

Note: This game was released to my subscribers early in the week when the line was -10. Oklahoma is still a Best Bet at the higher number. Sign up for a 4-week or season package if you’d like to receive the Best Bets as they are being released – 90% of the time at better odds than at the end of the week.