Game Analysis

Oklahoma (-3 ½)  40   TCU  34

Oklahoma fans are surely disappointed but the Sooners lost to a very good Houston team and to an elite Ohio State team. The Sooners were expected to be elite too, but that is obviously not the case. However, Oklahoma’s offense is still among the best in the nation, averaging 7.0 yards per play against teams that would allow just 4.9 yppl to an average team. TCU’s defense was horrible in their 59-41 week 1 win over FCS team South Dakota State but the Horned Frogs have been 0.8 yards per play better than average in their last 3 games and I believe that to be their actual level. However, even if I exclude those week 1 stats the math still projects Oklahoma to rack up 579 yards at 7.3 yards per play.

TCU’s offense is very good too and the Horned Frogs are projected to amass 498 yards at 6.3 yppl against a good but not great Oklahoma defense that was actually 0.4 yards per play better than average in their two losses to Houston and Ohio State.

Both teams should move the ball well in this game and both teams play at a fast pace. The math leans with Oklahoma and the Sooners had a chance to lick their wounds and refocus for the Big 12 schedule during their bye week. Coach Bob Stoops is 23-10 ATS in regular season games after a loss since he’s been at Oklahoma, including 16-4 ATS when not favored by 20 points or more. I’ll lean with the Sooners and with the over.