Game Analysis
Lean – Over (65) – UCF (+2.5) 36 Oklahoma State 36
There may be some rain in Orlando on Saturday afternoon but not enough from keeping these offenses from scoring a lot of points. Oklahoma State’s offense has been playing at an elite level since Alan Bowman become entrenched as the starting quarterback after coach Gundy shuffled 3 quarterbacks the first 3 games of the season (with bad results). The Cowboys have averaged 36 points in six Big-12 games and UCF, while rating around average defensively for the season, has allowed 38.2 points per game in conference play.
The Knights’ offense has been really good in averaging 7.2 yards per play this season against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team and Oklahoma State’s defense is slightly worse than average in compensated yards per play.
Both teams run their offense at a faster than average pace and both offenses have a significant advantage in this game. I see a lot of points.
Rush
-
Run Plays
31.4
35.3
-
Run Yards
195.4
188.9
-
YPRP
6.2
5.4
Pass
-
Pass Comp
22.3
17.9
-
Pass Att
38.1
30.4
-
Comp %
58.4%
58.9%
-
Pass Yards
248.4
248.4
-
Sacks
1.1
1.9
-
Sack Yards
7.6
10.4
-
Sack %
2.9%
5.8%
-
Pass Plays
39.3
32.3
-
Net Pass Yards
240.8
238.0
-
YPPP
6.1
7.4
Total
-
Total Plays
70.6
67.5
-
Total Yards
436.1
426.9
-
YPPL
6.2
6.3
TO
-
Int
0.8
1.1
-
Int %
2.0%
3.7%
-
Fumbles
0.4
0.6
-
Turnovers
1.1
1.8
Rush
-
Run Plays
38.0
38.9
-
Run Yards
243.2
234.0
-
YPRP
6.4
6.0
Pass
-
Pass Comp
17.9
16.6
-
Pass Att
28.3
28.7
-
Comp %
63.1%
57.8%
-
Pass Yards
259.9
195.3
-
Sacks
1.7
2.4
-
Sack Yards
12.4
19.6
-
Sack %
5.6%
7.8%
-
Pass Plays
30.0
31.1
-
Net Pass Yards
247.5
175.8
-
YPPP
8.2
5.6
Total
-
Total Plays
68.0
70.0
-
Total Yards
490.7
409.8
-
YPPL
7.2
5.9
TO
-
Int
1.0
0.7
-
Int %
3.5%
2.3%
-
Fumbles
0.6
0.3
-
Turnovers
1.6
1.0
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2023 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/02/23 Central Arkansas |
27-13 |
0.0
W
|
28/23 |
155/141 |
5.5/6.1 |
0/1 |
30/24 |
48/37 |
302/246 |
1/0 |
1/5 |
6.2/5.9 |
457/387 |
5.9/6.0 |
| 09/09/23 @ Arizona St. |
27-15 |
-3.0
W
|
26/30 |
130/121 |
5.0/4.0 |
0/0 |
22/16 |
32/29 |
176/157 |
0/1 |
3/3 |
5.0/4.9 |
306/278 |
5.0/4.5 |
| 09/16/23 South Alabama |
7-33 |
-7.0
L
|
25/44 |
126/268 |
5.0/6.1 |
1/0 |
16/10 |
35/16 |
82/133 |
1/0 |
4/2 |
2.1/7.4 |
208/401 |
3.3/6.5 |
| 09/23/23 @ Iowa St. |
27-34 |
+3.5
L
|
23/32 |
148/78 |
6.4/2.4 |
0/0 |
23/27 |
48/38 |
266/348 |
2/0 |
1/0 |
5.4/9.2 |
414/426 |
5.8/6.1 |
| 10/06/23 Kansas St. |
29-21 |
+11.0
W
|
36/35 |
181/247 |
5.0/7.1 |
0/0 |
20/15 |
36/34 |
238/144 |
0/3 |
0/2 |
6.6/4.0 |
419/391 |
5.8/5.5 |
| 10/14/23 Kansas |
39-32 |
+3.0
W
|
37/25 |
220/115 |
5.9/4.6 |
0/0 |
28/23 |
41/34 |
334/383 |
0/2 |
1/4 |
8.0/10.1 |
554/498 |
7.0/7.9 |
| 10/21/23 @ West Virginia |
48-34 |
+3.0
W
|
32/42 |
285/231 |
8.9/5.5 |
1/2 |
24/15 |
36/30 |
210/246 |
1/1 |
0/1 |
5.8/7.9 |
495/477 |
7.3/6.5 |
| 10/28/23 Cincinnati |
45-13 |
-7.5
W
|
36/49 |
324/286 |
9.0/5.8 |
1/1 |
17/11 |
34/25 |
286/156 |
1/1 |
0/1 |
8.4/6.0 |
610/442 |
8.7/5.9 |
| 11/04/23 Oklahoma |
27-24 |
+6.0
W
|
36/25 |
149/165 |
4.1/6.6 |
0/2 |
28/26 |
43/37 |
334/337 |
1/1 |
0/2 |
7.8/8.6 |
483/502 |
6.1/7.8 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2023 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 08/31/23 Kent State |
56-6 |
-37.0
W
|
45/34 |
391/113 |
8.7/3.3 |
1/0 |
25/12 |
35/32 |
332/133 |
2/1 |
1/2 |
9.2/3.9 |
723/246 |
8.9/3.6 |
| 09/09/23 @ Boise St. |
18-16 |
-3.5
L
|
41/37 |
258/188 |
6.3/5.1 |
0/0 |
16/14 |
24/27 |
272/196 |
2/1 |
0/2 |
11.3/6.8 |
530/384 |
8.2/5.8 |
| 09/16/23 Villanova |
48-14 |
0.0
W
|
52/28 |
275/103 |
5.3/3.7 |
0/0 |
24/9 |
34/23 |
370/94 |
0/1 |
1/2 |
10.6/3.8 |
645/197 |
7.4/3.7 |
| 09/23/23 @ Kansas St. |
31-44 |
+6.5
L
|
29/39 |
173/288 |
6.0/7.4 |
1/0 |
14/27 |
25/42 |
234/248 |
1/1 |
4/1 |
8.1/5.8 |
407/536 |
7.0/6.5 |
| 09/30/23 Baylor |
35-36 |
-8.0
L
|
33/39 |
244/203 |
7.4/5.2 |
1/1 |
13/21 |
25/34 |
230/243 |
1/0 |
1/4 |
8.8/6.4 |
474/446 |
8.0/5.8 |
| 10/07/23 @ Kansas |
22-51 |
+3.0
L
|
34/49 |
241/419 |
7.1/8.6 |
1/0 |
15/8 |
23/12 |
132/71 |
0/0 |
4/2 |
4.9/5.1 |
373/490 |
6.1/7.8 |
| 10/21/23 @ Oklahoma |
29-31 |
+19.0
W
|
38/40 |
172/220 |
4.5/5.5 |
0/0 |
16/25 |
30/38 |
227/231 |
0/1 |
3/3 |
6.9/5.6 |
399/451 |
5.6/5.6 |
| 10/28/23 West Virginia |
28-41 |
-7.0
L
|
32/46 |
198/300 |
6.2/6.5 |
1/1 |
25/14 |
36/23 |
265/143 |
3/0 |
1/1 |
7.2/6.0 |
463/443 |
6.7/6.3 |
| 11/04/23 @ Cincinnati |
28-26 |
-3.5
L
|
38/38 |
237/272 |
6.2/7.2 |
0/1 |
13/19 |
23/27 |
165/223 |
0/1 |
0/5 |
7.2/7.0 |
402/495 |
6.6/7.1 |
Oklahoma St.
@ 
UCF