Game Analysis

Lean – Over (55) – Texas (-15)  40   Oklahoma State  23

Oklahoma State has a very good offense that rates at 1.0 yards per play better than average with Alan Bowman at quarterback, which is better than a Texas defense that’s been 0.8 yppl better than average this season.

The Texas offense, meanwhile, has a massive advantage over an Oklahoma State defense that’s yielded 6.4 yppl to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average FBS defense. Texas has averaged 6.7 yppl this season and they rate at 1.5 yppl better than average with Quinn Ewers at quarterback (he missed two games).

With Texas having a huge advantage over the Oklahoma State defense, and with the Cowboys having a slight edge over the Texas defense, I don’t see why the total is just 55 points (52.8 points is average) in a game where more than the average number of plays should be run (Oklahoma State plays at a faster than average pace and Texas is a bit faster than average).

This game is also being played in perfect conditions at AT&T Stadium, which adds a few points to the projection. I’ll lean with the Over in this game.