Game Analysis

Oklahoma State (-11 ½)  37   PITTSBURGH  21

I wrote last week about Pitt’s offense struggles with the risk-averse Max Browne at quarterback and I don’t see much hope for the Panthers’ attack as long as Browne continues to settle for underneath passes rather than throwing the ball down the field. Browne lost his job at USC last season by averaging just 8.7 yards per completion and 4.7 yards per pass play in his 3 starts with a talented group of receivers that freshman Sam Darnold had no trouble connecting down field with. This season, Brown has completed 64.3% of his passes but he’s averaged only 7.7 yards per completion and an even worse 3.6 yards per pass play in two games.

The coaching staff must be pulling their hair out. Browne was the #1 quarterback recruit in the nation coming out of high school, so he obviously has significant arm talent, but his inability to pull the trigger on down field throws has made him a horrible quarterback for both USC and now Pitt. Get out of your head Max! Throw the f’ing ball down the field! I keep waiting for it, as I’m sure his coaches are too, but it never comes. So, until I see evidence that Browne gets his head out of his ass and uses his talent, I’ll keep expecting the Pitt offense to suck.

Oklahoma State obviously has no such issues offensively, as Cowboys’ quarterback Mason Rudolph is one of the best in the nation, completing 73% of his passes while averaging 14.2 yards per completion and 9.9 yppp. The Cowboys also look much improved defensively and my ratings favor Oklahoma State by 15 ½ points in this game even with Pitt’s defense looking pretty good. My Best Bet on the Pitt-Penn State Under cashed last week but some of the value in playing Pitt under is gone. Still, I certainly favor the under again (just not as a Best Bet) and I’ll lean with Oklahoma State as well.