Game Analysis

BAYLOR (-8)  40   Oklahoma State  27

Baylor is not as explosive offensively as they’ve been in recent seasons, as the absence of All-American WR Corey Coleman has hindered the aerial attack while a rebuilt offensive line hasn’t been opening the holes that they did last season. Quarterback Seth Russell is averaging only 7.1 yards per pass play this season despite facing a collection of teams that would allow 7.6 yppp to an average quarterback. The rush attack has averaged 5.6 yards per rushing play (against teams that would allow 5.3 yprp), which is pretty good, but not nearly as good as last year’s offense, which averaged 6.6 yprp (against teams that would allow 5.5 yprp).

So why like Baylor here? Because the Bears can play defense. Baylor’s defense has been overshadowed in recent seasons by their offense but the Bears have been 0.5 yards per play better than average defensively over the last 3 years combined. This season’s defense may be even better. The quality of opposition faced is not impressive (NW St, SMU, and Rice) but allowing just 3.6 yards per play to those teams is 1.2 yppl better than the 4.8 yppl that those attacks would combine to average against an average defensive team.

Oklahoma State had a huge game offensively last week against Pitt (650 yards at 8.5 yppl) but the Cowboys averaged just 5.6 yppl against FCS team SE Louisiana and only 5.1 yppl against Central Michigan. I do rate the Cowboys as very good offensively but they have a worse than average rushing attack and that will put a lot of pressure on quarterback Mason Rudolph to carry the load. The problem with depending on the passing attack is that Baylor has allowed just 34% completions and the Bears allowed just 53.5% completions the previous 3 years combined. Baylor’s press coverage, which limits completions, had been hurt by big plays in recent years (13.3 yards per catch allowed the last 3 seasons, although just 12.2 ypc last year) but the Bears have two experienced safeties that have allowed zero pass plays of 40 yards or more this season. That will be put to the test against Oklahoma State but I expect Baylor to limit the Cowboys’ big plays and stuff the running game.

Oklahoma State’s defense is mediocre this season so Baylor should move the ball at a decent clip, particularly on the ground. The only decent rushing attack that OSU has faced was last week against Pitt and they allowed the Panthers to run for 304 yards in last week’s 45-38 win. Baylor is a better running team that Pitt and my model projects 6.2 yards per rushing play for the Bears in this game.

Overall, my ratings favor Baylor by 13 points in this game and I’ll lean with the Bears at home, where they are 19-6 ATS the last 5 seasons when not favored by more than 30 points (although just 1-2 last year). I also favor the Under, as the fact that Baylor better on defense than they are on offense this season does not appear to be reflected in the over/under line.