Game Analysis

Oklahoma (-5.5)  32   Iowa State  25

Iowa State beat Oklahoma 37-30 back in early-October while winning the line of scrimmage by 4.0 points. However, Oklahoma is a better team now than they were back then. The Sooners added star RB Rhamondre Stevenson and 2019 1st-Team All-Big 12 DE Ronnie Perkins in week 9 and the Sooners are 4-0 straight up and 3-1 ATS since adding those two stars.

Stevenson has averaged 96 rushing yards at 5.9 ypr, which is considerably better than the sub-par 4.9 ypr that the other two main backs have averaged this season, and Perkins has 4 sacks, 6 other QB hits, and 8 total tackles for loss in just 4 games. Oklahoma’s other elite pass-rusher, Isaiah Thomas, is not being double-teamed as much and the Sooners have averaged 4.5 sacks and allowed just 3.7 yards per pass play (against quarterbacks that would average 5.9 yppp against an average defense) and only 3.9 yards per play in 4 games with Perkins in the lineup. That includes allowing just 13 points on 246 yards at 3.6 yppl to a good Oklahoma State offense.

Iowa State quarterback Brock Purdy gets rid of the ball quickly, so the Sooners’ pass-rush isn’t as likely to throw off his game, but I certainly don’t expect the 10.6 yards per pass play that he averaged in the first meeting. Oklahoma’s pass defense was a mess early in the season when these teams met, as they allowed 10.3 yppp in their first two games, but the Sooners have been 2.2 yards per pass play better than average in 6 games since losing to Iowa State (4.2 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.4 yppp against an average defense) and I expect Purdy’s numbers to be pretty mediocre in this game.

On the other side of the ball, Oklahoma’s offense has been 1.2 yppl better than average for the season (6.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl) and they’re a bit better with Stevenson in the backfield, and that attack has an advantage over an Cyclones’ defense that has been 0.8 yppl better than average this season. Oklahoma averaged 6.0 yppl in the first meeting and I project the Sooners at 6.5 yppl in the good scoring conditions in AT&T Stadium.