Game Analysis

Florida State (-9.5)  37   Oklahoma  27

Florida State is one of the elite teams in the nation, as the Seminoles rank 6th in compensated yards per play differential. Oklahoma is also better than their 6-6 record, as the Sooners 13 points better than an average team this season. However, OU won’t be as good in this game without stud running back Eric Gray, two NFL-bound offensive tackles and defensively lineman Jalen Redmond, who has also chosen to focus on the NFL draft rather than play in this game.

Oklahoma’s offense averaged close to 500 total yards per game and the Sooners have been 1.2 yards per play better than average with quarterback Dillon Gabriel. However, Gray averaged 6.4 ypr and his backups combined for just 4.3 ypr, which is a massive difference in production. Losing two NFL caliber offensive tackles is also significant and I rate the Sooners’ attack at just 0.5 yppl better than average heading into this game, which is a bit more than 5 points worse than if they had everyone.

It looks like Florida State’s potential NFL players are going to be playing in this game and the Noles’ defense is 0.9 yppl better than average and projected to limit Oklahoma’s hampered attack to 392 yards at 5.3 yppl even with the Sooners expected to throw the ball more often without Gray.

FSU’s star QB Jordan Travis is going to be a Heisman front-runner next season and he leads an offense that has averaged 6.9 yppl against teams that would allow just 5.5 yppl to an average team. Florida State defense was just 0.4 yppl better than average in the regular season and the Sooners had issues defending elite offensive teams. Giving up an average of 48.7 points to TCU, Texas and Kansas in the middle of the season. That unit is a projected to be about a point worse without Redmond, who was second on the team with 10 total tackles for loss. I project 543 yards at 6.9 yppl for the Seminoles. The math favors FSU by 10 points after including projected turnovers and special teams, which favor the Sooners. I’ll pass.